{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a75ecd5a-abb2-41e2-9f71-eacc4cddc63a", "symbol": "MLG", "name": "MLG Oz Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.712, "architecture_energy": 31.944, "architecture_maturity": 63.086, "architecture_confidence": 72.629, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.72, "rotation_up": 24.39, "upward_expansion": 10.36, "deceleration": 63.74, "rotation_down": 44.23, "downward_expansion": 71.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.718, 0.717455, 0.72781, 0.760507 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.745, "trend_reference": 0.813854, "distance_from_trend": -0.084603, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.700103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.06413, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.004673, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.201859, "excess_performance": -0.265565, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084603, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05777, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.06413, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081861, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160047, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.201859, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.503703, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 572307, "relative_activity": 0.738941, "balance": 0.503703, "dry_up": 0.894809, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072277, "annualized_volatility": 0.40675, "from_high_reference": -0.326568, "from_low_reference": 0.164062 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.813854, "fair_value_reference": 0.700103, "structural_low": 0.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.008065, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.010636, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.267328, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.008065, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.042866, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.217822, "worst_return": -0.15625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.040323, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.025641, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.48515, "worst_return": -0.114583, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 1203324, "typical_volume": 904395.6, "trend": 0.82877, "fair_value": 0.699045, "relative_strength": -21.834811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.589951, "energy": 69.001194, "activity_lines": [ 0.698333, 0.712909, 0.737381, 0.779532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.68, "volume": 214710, "typical_volume": 849517.15, "trend": 0.822298, "fair_value": 0.699099, "relative_strength": -19.094681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.784733, "energy": 69.441473, "activity_lines": [ 0.686667, 0.705182, 0.728548, 0.769934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.75, "volume": 781764, "typical_volume": 817041.2, "trend": 0.818818, "fair_value": 0.699569, "relative_strength": -12.784408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.48542, "energy": 47.958194, "activity_lines": [ 0.703667, 0.712182, 0.727905, 0.76527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.745, "volume": 572307, "typical_volume": 774496.55, "trend": 0.813854, "fair_value": 0.700103, "relative_strength": -16.004673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.711593, "energy": 31.944204, "activity_lines": [ 0.718, 0.717455, 0.72781, 0.760507 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }