{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7604f31-2609-4d31-9449-d5cc5272c112", "symbol": "GEO", "name": "Geo Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.813, "architecture_energy": 63.212, "architecture_maturity": 96.654, "architecture_confidence": 93.329, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.79, "rotation_up": 56.54, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.73, "rotation_down": 28.69, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.610667, 30.255091, 27.552286, 24.894516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 30.69, "trend_reference": 21.721333, "distance_from_trend": 0.412897, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.692949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.641796, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 36.527673, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.930189, "excess_performance": 0.804564, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.412897, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.261914, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.641796, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.359397, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.365277, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.38253, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.930189, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.181849, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9398736, "relative_activity": 1.038881, "balance": 2.181849, "dry_up": 0.832383, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075836, "annualized_volatility": 0.464933, "from_high_reference": -0.048372, "from_low_reference": 1.453237 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.721333, "fair_value_reference": 18.692949, "structural_low": 12.51, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.056585, "positive_rate": 0.703704, "directional_follow_through": 0.703704, "median_excess_return": 0.042959, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.243197, "worst_return": -0.316775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.018116, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005236, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.410386, "worst_return": -0.23301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009783, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.046436, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.620575, "worst_return": -0.252703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.98702, "energy": 67.520924, "activity_lines": [ 29.995333, 28.735273, 25.387095, 22.950043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.92, "volume": 7443045, "typical_volume": 9762935.9, "trend": 20.783, "fair_value": 18.391859, "relative_strength": 44.566632, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.449908, "energy": 68.091888, "activity_lines": [ 30.314, 29.399273, 26.195619, 23.635462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.89, "volume": 5750179, "typical_volume": 9447756.8, "trend": 21.281667, "fair_value": 18.543654, "relative_strength": 42.794432, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.33399, "energy": 65.535486, "activity_lines": [ 30.513333, 29.912364, 26.922381, 24.287527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.69, "volume": 9398736, "typical_volume": 9046976.45, "trend": 21.721333, "fair_value": 18.692949, "relative_strength": 36.527673, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.812557, "energy": 63.212161, "activity_lines": [ 30.610667, 30.255091, 27.552286, 24.894516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }