{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a766fc57-cb08-45db-8648-5f45481676d7", "symbol": "SXLY", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 84.751, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.705, "architecture_energy": 19.721, "architecture_maturity": 22.952, "architecture_confidence": 77.232, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.22, "rotation_up": 39.58, "upward_expansion": 57.01, "deceleration": 77.98, "rotation_down": 23.57, "downward_expansion": 18.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.632334, 72.436773, 72.761553, 72.183685 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 75.58625, "trend_reference": 71.859166, "distance_from_trend": 0.051867, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 61.649647, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.226061, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.038822, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.06968, "excess_performance": 0.018445, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051867, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00081, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.226061, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041336, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046269, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06968, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.447639, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5118, "relative_activity": 0.368643, "balance": 1.447639, "dry_up": 1.31818, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041252, "annualized_volatility": 0.226615, "from_high_reference": -0.01023, "from_low_reference": 0.207448 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.859166, "fair_value_reference": 61.649647, "structural_low": 62.599998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.015236, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.009668, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.07045, "worst_return": -0.213975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058917, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.053696, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.189051, "worst_return": -0.12285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.141493, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.060483, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.255003, "worst_return": 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"stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.587603, "energy": 24.01873, "activity_lines": [ 71.272916, 71.947567, 72.357678, 71.929965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 72.081253, "volume": 43964, "typical_volume": 14316.95, "trend": 71.866875, "fair_value": 61.479375, "relative_strength": -7.376902, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.015404, "energy": 10.725029, "activity_lines": [ 71.391501, 71.850341, 72.403315, 71.943726 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.58625, "volume": 5118, "typical_volume": 13883.35, "trend": 71.859166, "fair_value": 61.649647, "relative_strength": -3.038822, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.704771, "energy": 19.720883, "activity_lines": [ 72.632334, 72.436773, 72.761553, 72.183685 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }