{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7708ec9-98eb-4243-8d8d-936dcc5e927f", "symbol": "DB51", "name": "Xtrackers - MSCI Europe Small Cap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.348, "architecture_energy": 76.872, "architecture_maturity": 35.12, "architecture_confidence": 72.407, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.14, "rotation_up": 71.89, "upward_expansion": 91.82, "deceleration": 42.8, "rotation_down": 15.82, "downward_expansion": 16.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 74.305334, 73.684546, 73.003477, 72.107829 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 75.830002, "trend_reference": 71.269001, "distance_from_trend": 0.063997, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.532019, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.232367, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.484132, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.069987, "excess_performance": -0.104259, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063997, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033204, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.232367, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028989, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104841, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011638, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069987, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.477816, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.477816, "dry_up": 0.69868, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020461, "annualized_volatility": 0.156215, "from_high_reference": -0.000791, "from_low_reference": 0.20346 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.269001, "fair_value_reference": 61.532019, "structural_low": 63.009998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.001206, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.008349, "regime_survival": 0.62963, "best_return": 0.077617, "worst_return": -0.095694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.034634, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.039867, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.070517, "worst_return": -0.078265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.051759, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.067847, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.110866, "worst_return": -0.025157, 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"volume": 840, "typical_volume": 827.4, "trend": 70.882001, "fair_value": 61.243942, "relative_strength": -11.351308, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.734985, "energy": 49.550254, "activity_lines": [ 73.165333, 73.003455, 72.311715, 71.599893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 738.8, "trend": 71.075001, "fair_value": 61.380481, "relative_strength": -10.356263, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.346845, "energy": 50.343248, "activity_lines": [ 73.502667, 73.184364, 72.586477, 71.801054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.830002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 450.85, "trend": 71.269001, "fair_value": 61.532019, "relative_strength": -10.484132, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.348076, "energy": 76.871699, "activity_lines": [ 74.305334, 73.684546, 73.003477, 72.107829 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }