{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a776bb68-25b2-41e3-b0b1-b38e95e140f1", "symbol": "DEXP3", "name": "Dexxos Participa\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 55.853, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.679, "architecture_energy": 24.144, "architecture_maturity": 11.298, "architecture_confidence": 72.677, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.51, "rotation_up": 60.32, "upward_expansion": 37.38, "deceleration": 34.87, "rotation_down": 15.21, "downward_expansion": 19.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.282, 7.191636, 7.178333, 7.202301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.4, "trend_reference": 7.254333, "distance_from_trend": 0.02008, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.494438, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012601, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.579158, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.010695, "excess_performance": 0.046353, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02008, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005436, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012601, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017929, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005792, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146272, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010695, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.456897, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 347200, "relative_activity": 0.837171, "balance": 1.456897, "dry_up": 0.684301, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030042, "annualized_volatility": 0.149059, "from_high_reference": -0.08529, "from_low_reference": 0.154202 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.254333, "fair_value_reference": 7.494438, "structural_low": 6.81, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.010902, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.021406, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.150348, "worst_return": -0.099099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020316, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.013681, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.372526, "worst_return": -0.126126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.02922, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.089479, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.446232, "worst_return": -0.194275, "sufficient": false }, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 7.15, "volume": 297800, "typical_volume": 465815.0, "trend": 7.304667, "fair_value": 7.492415, "relative_strength": -6.060639, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.309865, "energy": 22.006218, "activity_lines": [ 7.117333, 7.090545, 7.144667, 7.202688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.21, "volume": 281100, "typical_volume": 444065.0, "trend": 7.290667, "fair_value": 7.495783, "relative_strength": -4.886429, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.70082, "energy": 17.713912, "activity_lines": [ 7.161333, 7.11, 7.148524, 7.196581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.25, "volume": 209100, "typical_volume": 428185.0, "trend": 7.270667, "fair_value": 7.496684, "relative_strength": -6.014685, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.070314, "energy": 18.432326, "activity_lines": [ 7.209333, 7.136727, 7.156524, 7.193957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.4, "volume": 347200, "typical_volume": 414730.0, "trend": 7.254333, "fair_value": 7.494438, "relative_strength": -0.579158, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.679307, "energy": 24.144462, "activity_lines": [ 7.282, 7.191636, 7.178333, 7.202301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }