{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7817572-aa25-4a9b-9920-cfee277306a7", "symbol": "300869", "name": "Contec Medical Systems Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.432, "architecture_energy": 36.358, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.45, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.84, "rotation_up": 26.94, "upward_expansion": 17.15, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 39.42, "downward_expansion": 67.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.945333, 10.860364, 11.297143, 11.933505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.41, "trend_reference": 12.927667, "distance_from_trend": -0.117397, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.496495, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.263704, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.602278, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.260531, "excess_performance": -0.267931, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117397, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118328, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.263704, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055363, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246023, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070777, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.260531, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.835291, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15969334, "relative_activity": 1.049835, "balance": 0.835291, "dry_up": 1.390029, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077125, "annualized_volatility": 0.269164, "from_high_reference": -0.452758, "from_low_reference": 0.137587 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.927667, "fair_value_reference": 15.496495, "structural_low": 10.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.041386, "positive_rate": 0.28125, "directional_follow_through": 0.71875, "median_excess_return": -0.029464, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.237421, "worst_return": -0.114263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.092803, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.097918, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.513666, "worst_return": -0.223722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.143268, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.101439, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.310182, "worst_return": -0.352788, 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"typical_volume": 14908753.25, "trend": 13.369333, "fair_value": 15.713026, "relative_strength": -28.29558, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.497667, "energy": 60.934592, "activity_lines": [ 10.737333, 10.932182, 11.645286, 12.380495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.26, "volume": 22342474, "typical_volume": 15214746.8, "trend": 13.191667, "fair_value": 15.637036, "relative_strength": -31.88855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.920582, "energy": 60.691515, "activity_lines": [ 10.560667, 10.761455, 11.450429, 12.179892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.01, "volume": 18504687, "typical_volume": 15290829.2, "trend": 13.047333, "fair_value": 15.565731, "relative_strength": -24.69819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.074535, "energy": 50.103404, "activity_lines": [ 10.71, 10.764909, 11.347048, 12.03914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.41, "volume": 15969334, "typical_volume": 15211277.25, "trend": 12.927667, "fair_value": 15.496495, "relative_strength": -24.602278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.432189, "energy": 36.358178, "activity_lines": [ 10.945333, 10.860364, 11.297143, 11.933505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }