{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a78322b4-41a0-43b4-91ae-355d77644fed", "symbol": "CONVERA", "name": "Convertidora Industrial, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.842, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -19.472, "architecture_energy": 70.796, "architecture_maturity": 48.382, "architecture_confidence": 43.289, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.75, "rotation_up": 14.0, "upward_expansion": 60.15, "deceleration": 64.14, "rotation_down": 58.42, "downward_expansion": 54.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.95, 3.004909, 3.078714, 2.979849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.94, "trend_reference": 2.754667, "distance_from_trend": 0.06728, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.046795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.436392, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 21.986157, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.56383, "excess_performance": 0.618497, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06728, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16198, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.436392, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201618, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.219862, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220528, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.56383, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.250474, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.250474, "dry_up": 0.006356, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010466, "annualized_volatility": 0.349545, "from_high_reference": -0.125, "from_low_reference": 0.896774 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.754667, "fair_value_reference": 2.046795, "structural_low": 1.88, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.030837, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": -0.003775, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.15, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.052133, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.077974, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.702128, "worst_return": -0.412979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.065903, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.029882, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.56383, "worst_return": -0.414706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.330383, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.31995, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.028653, "worst_return": -0.339207, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051724, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064706, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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6429.4, "trend": 2.505667, "fair_value": 2.001731, "relative_strength": 38.393604, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.357566, "energy": 57.182137, "activity_lines": [ 3.164667, 3.190364, 3.046143, 2.807376 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 3.09, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6429.4, "trend": 2.548667, "fair_value": 2.008718, "relative_strength": 34.612394, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.268487, "energy": 67.262287, "activity_lines": [ 3.137333, 3.168545, 3.074333, 2.845075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.09, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5879.4, "trend": 2.591667, "fair_value": 2.015705, "relative_strength": 33.683064, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.787038, "energy": 68.260871, "activity_lines": [ 3.118, 3.148182, 3.096762, 2.88 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.09, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5157.2, "trend": 2.633667, "fair_value": 2.022692, "relative_strength": 33.593071, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.271621, "energy": 50.451879, "activity_lines": [ 3.106, 3.131636, 3.113429, 2.912151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.94, "volume": 112, "typical_volume": 5162.8, "trend": 2.663, "fair_value": 2.028718, "relative_strength": 25.937723, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.323279, "energy": 33.193264, "activity_lines": [ 3.045333, 3.092727, 3.110857, 2.931914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.94, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5162.8, "trend": 2.692333, "fair_value": 2.034744, "relative_strength": 25.275724, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.959332, "energy": 37.46182, "activity_lines": [ 3.0, 3.058545, 3.104048, 2.949785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.94, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4654.1, "trend": 2.721667, "fair_value": 2.040769, "relative_strength": 23.122167, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -19.123643, "energy": 48.493509, "activity_lines": [ 2.97, 3.029273, 3.093, 2.965763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.94, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4405.0, "trend": 2.754667, "fair_value": 2.046795, "relative_strength": 21.986157, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -19.472427, "energy": 70.795674, "activity_lines": [ 2.95, 3.004909, 3.078714, 2.979849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }