{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7840756-d2cb-42a7-9423-6826b2a1ef82", "symbol": "LEXX", "name": "Lexaria Bioscience Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.6, "architecture_energy": 79.796, "architecture_maturity": 44.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.562, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.26, "rotation_up": 13.14, "upward_expansion": 17.65, "deceleration": 37.31, "rotation_down": 72.04, "downward_expansion": 90.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.916467, 7.702836, 8.745526, 9.519255 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.27, "trend_reference": 10.314867, "distance_from_trend": -0.489087, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.249109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.782672, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -61.881411, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.515402, "excess_performance": -0.702856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.489087, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151647, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.782672, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155277, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.618814, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184557, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.515402, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.307428, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 237553, "relative_activity": 0.357978, "balance": 0.307428, "dry_up": 0.940216, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.323785, "annualized_volatility": 1.043558, "from_high_reference": -0.773333, "from_low_reference": 0.251781 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.314867, "fair_value_reference": 24.249109, "structural_low": 4.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.031932, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.017226, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.564077, "worst_return": -0.33, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.015613, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00048, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.370775, "worst_return": -0.36875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.133244, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.292446, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.09133, "worst_return": -0.74389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 8.4071, 8.763709, 10.087764, 10.459742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.699, "volume": 395445, "typical_volume": 689811.35, "trend": 10.6029, "fair_value": 24.4075, "relative_strength": -33.739131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.478161, "energy": 41.173656, "activity_lines": [ 8.7583, 8.877955, 9.989643, 10.379058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.5415, "volume": 445618, "typical_volume": 678457.1, "trend": 10.62965, "fair_value": 24.385519, "relative_strength": -31.222783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.614009, "energy": 27.060898, "activity_lines": [ 9.0474, 8.981209, 9.876864, 10.310581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.385, "volume": 356898, "typical_volume": 652293.45, "trend": 10.6437, "fair_value": 24.361394, "relative_strength": -37.754068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.0984, "energy": 26.0427, "activity_lines": [ 8.9294, 8.867018, 9.658436, 10.165765 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.865, "volume": 1455629, "typical_volume": 687249.7, "trend": 10.5122, "fair_value": 24.312442, "relative_strength": -56.073281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.514152, "energy": 55.843973, "activity_lines": [ 7.9526, 8.3037, 9.219279, 9.857461 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.27, "volume": 237553, "typical_volume": 663596.85, "trend": 10.314867, "fair_value": 24.249109, "relative_strength": -61.881411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.600403, "energy": 79.795602, "activity_lines": [ 6.916467, 7.702836, 8.745526, 9.519255 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }