{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a785b2a9-f6d9-4103-868a-8a651c810e9b", "symbol": "3630", "name": "Newmax Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.901, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.711, "architecture_energy": 56.307, "architecture_maturity": 17.163, "architecture_confidence": 86.182, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.36, "rotation_up": 11.37, "upward_expansion": 11.69, "deceleration": 38.41, "rotation_down": 66.91, "downward_expansion": 87.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.66, 26.834546, 27.593333, 28.162151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.200001, "trend_reference": 29.286667, "distance_from_trend": -0.13954, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.142628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.135287, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.774721, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.242105, "excess_performance": -0.683477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.13954, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005377, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.135287, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00124, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.417747, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.242105, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.330033, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2592896, "relative_activity": 0.307714, "balance": 1.330033, "dry_up": 0.602097, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143926, "annualized_volatility": 0.518854, "from_high_reference": -0.413953, "from_low_reference": 0.030675 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.286667, "fair_value_reference": 29.142628, "structural_low": 24.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.005525, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.012753, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.25969, "worst_return": -0.178879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.07131, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.051258, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.505801, "worst_return": -0.19375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.125547, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.107652, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.298, "worst_return": -0.204716, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136247, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110932, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003396, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090586, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125402, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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28.935455, 28.623333, 29.170968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.0, "volume": 2228008, "typical_volume": 8078265.75, "trend": 29.585, "fair_value": 29.270192, "relative_strength": -40.948979, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.607563, "energy": 40.07202, "activity_lines": [ 26.82, 28.270909, 28.267143, 28.868387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.549999, "volume": 11830176, "typical_volume": 8485845.35, "trend": 29.541667, "fair_value": 29.22468, "relative_strength": -36.014663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.533688, "energy": 44.334912, "activity_lines": [ 26.423333, 27.899091, 28.087143, 28.672581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.9, "volume": 3642794, "typical_volume": 8426894.1, "trend": 29.47, "fair_value": 29.189423, "relative_strength": -38.628085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.970071, "energy": 54.155683, "activity_lines": [ 26.03, 27.428182, 27.864524, 28.437634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 25.200001, "volume": 2592896, "typical_volume": 8426328.35, "trend": 29.286667, "fair_value": 29.142628, "relative_strength": -41.774721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.71099, "energy": 56.306963, "activity_lines": [ 25.66, 26.834546, 27.593333, 28.162151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }