{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a789cfe2-d1c5-4c31-bd8c-f1ce009b37fd", "symbol": "FPWR", "name": "FIRST TRUST EIP POWER SOLUTIONS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.295, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.545, "architecture_energy": 8.262, "architecture_maturity": 43.841, "architecture_confidence": 70.87, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.55, "rotation_up": 31.71, "upward_expansion": 61.12, "deceleration": 82.55, "rotation_down": 26.67, "downward_expansion": 15.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.235413, 37.314088, 37.266096, 37.211946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.8015, "trend_reference": 36.88615, "distance_from_trend": -0.002295, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.227051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.259159, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.769549, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.044767, "excess_performance": -0.080858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002295, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037609, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.259159, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050028, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067695, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036464, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044767, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.726108, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39092, "relative_activity": 1.317882, "balance": 0.726108, "dry_up": 1.749155, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024452, "annualized_volatility": 0.13391, "from_high_reference": -0.038297, "from_low_reference": 0.17343 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.88615, "fair_value_reference": 29.227051, "structural_low": 35.065399, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0237, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.00667, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.060125, "worst_return": -0.033022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019394, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.011607, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.147471, "worst_return": -0.05147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.094796, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.034999, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.154703, "worst_return": 0.035409, "sufficient": true }, { 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37.294833, 37.265324, 37.08047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.9862, "volume": 123920, "typical_volume": 30128.65, "trend": 36.627509, "fair_value": 29.046215, "relative_strength": 0.440189, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.163146, "energy": 39.640394, "activity_lines": [ 37.652033, 37.439011, 37.333272, 37.179002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.0943, "volume": 28501, "typical_volume": 30137.25, "trend": 36.757668, "fair_value": 29.137792, "relative_strength": -2.870953, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.836849, "energy": 22.776806, "activity_lines": [ 37.464153, 37.398229, 37.312651, 37.209118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.8015, "volume": 39092, "typical_volume": 29662.75, "trend": 36.88615, "fair_value": 29.227051, "relative_strength": -6.769549, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.54498, "energy": 8.262322, "activity_lines": [ 37.235413, 37.314088, 37.266096, 37.211946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }