{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a78b3fd0-0361-4af4-8db8-5a013b2f4221", "symbol": "ALTY", "name": "GLOBAL X ALTERNATIVE INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.928, "architecture_energy": 31.785, "architecture_maturity": 49.01, "architecture_confidence": 52.385, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.16, "rotation_up": 42.6, "upward_expansion": 74.35, "deceleration": 66.89, "rotation_down": 24.29, "downward_expansion": 3.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.291177, 12.282052, 12.260503, 12.201891 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.3, "trend_reference": 12.12604, "distance_from_trend": 0.014346, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.558754, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16491, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.77178, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028435, "excess_performance": -0.159018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014346, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021096, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16491, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030358, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016881, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028435, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.1665, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 95946, "relative_activity": 1.32164, "balance": 1.1665, "dry_up": 1.175303, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011823, "annualized_volatility": 0.0607, "from_high_reference": -0.007287, "from_low_reference": 0.124102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.12604, "fair_value_reference": 10.558754, "structural_low": 11.613903, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.00875, "positive_rate": 0.763158, "directional_follow_through": 0.763158, "median_excess_return": -0.007259, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.044112, "worst_return": -0.043078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.021525, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.026789, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.081063, "worst_return": -0.071789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.069809, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.060633, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.103191, "worst_return": -0.021575, 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"relative_strength": -4.127684, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.610429, "energy": 36.412719, "activity_lines": [ 12.297108, 12.278785, 12.239011, 12.178409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.256153, "volume": 67622, "typical_volume": 70740.25, "trend": 12.106696, "fair_value": 10.537465, "relative_strength": -4.678781, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.848044, "energy": 33.872798, "activity_lines": [ 12.286034, 12.276041, 12.248486, 12.18942 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.3, "volume": 95946, "typical_volume": 72596.15, "trend": 12.12604, "fair_value": 10.558754, "relative_strength": -8.77178, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.927785, "energy": 31.785078, "activity_lines": [ 12.291177, 12.282052, 12.260503, 12.201891 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }