{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a794caa7-a4cf-4c59-91ba-57551010c282", "symbol": "XCX4", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Thailand UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.714, "architecture_energy": 16.32, "architecture_maturity": 71.051, "architecture_confidence": 90.527, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.79, "rotation_up": 27.18, "upward_expansion": 56.26, "deceleration": 86.92, "rotation_down": 26.41, "downward_expansion": 17.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 2164.15, 2174.945455, 2167.129762, 2139.652151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2160.25, "trend_reference": 2085.158333, "distance_from_trend": 0.036012, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1719.405705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.256393, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.50462, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.140726, "excess_performance": 0.089491, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036012, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077457, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.256393, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015529, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035046, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090859, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.140726, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.166627, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26872, "relative_activity": 1.440962, "balance": 2.166627, "dry_up": 0.914342, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034359, "annualized_volatility": 0.2304, "from_high_reference": -0.062001, "from_low_reference": 0.39551 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2085.158333, "fair_value_reference": 1719.405705, "structural_low": 1883.300049, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.007491, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": 0.006389, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.097182, "worst_return": -0.064638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.025773, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.000162, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.10505, "worst_return": -0.001224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038321, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.026823, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.225999, "worst_return": -0.160108, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.021452, "energy": 21.497143, "activity_lines": [ 2171.516667, 2179.736364, 2165.059524, 2133.898387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2160.25, "volume": 26872, "typical_volume": 18648.65, "trend": 2085.158333, "fair_value": 1719.405705, "relative_strength": 3.50462, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.714109, "energy": 16.319557, "activity_lines": [ 2164.15, 2174.945455, 2167.129762, 2139.652151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }