{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a798375b-ace6-424d-8c79-c5eb4fa88666", "symbol": "PAT", "name": "Panthera Resources PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 55.58, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.558, "architecture_energy": 10.529, "architecture_maturity": 8.433, "architecture_confidence": 59.205, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.45, "rotation_up": 40.95, "upward_expansion": 41.95, "deceleration": 40.54, "rotation_down": 28.61, "downward_expansion": 13.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.201, 0.200136, 0.196957, 0.196927 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.201, "trend_reference": 0.19815, "distance_from_trend": 0.014383, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.119881, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.676657, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.558323, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005, "excess_performance": -0.046235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014383, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046439, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.676657, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139269, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035583, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099198, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.485974, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1567780, "relative_activity": 1.168509, "balance": 0.485974, "dry_up": 1.336606, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098546, "annualized_volatility": 0.363441, "from_high_reference": -0.196, "from_low_reference": 0.747826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.19815, "fair_value_reference": 0.119881, "structural_low": 0.16, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.018519, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.015927, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.369231, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043519, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.026273, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.83908, "worst_return": -0.293103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018868, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.054561, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.241379, "worst_return": -0.425532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.551724, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.480777, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.777778, "worst_return": -0.534483, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.206897, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117241, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.424, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.612903, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008197, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.296, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.275862, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.188889, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.235294, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.07, "volume": 1252353, "typical_volume": 2995010.6, "trend": 0.0549, "fair_value": 0.101147, "relative_strength": 37.101796, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 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7.167067, "activity_lines": [ 0.195, 0.191791, 0.193469, 0.196147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.21, "volume": 1008240, "typical_volume": 1409922.95, "trend": 0.201033, "fair_value": 0.116614, "relative_strength": 6.482397, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.744814, "energy": 20.655005, "activity_lines": [ 0.202, 0.195082, 0.194869, 0.196672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.21, "volume": 1359773, "typical_volume": 1318927.55, "trend": 0.200633, "fair_value": 0.117463, "relative_strength": 4.872059, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.028964, "energy": 26.771143, "activity_lines": [ 0.207, 0.1981, 0.19625, 0.197251 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.19, "volume": 2072597, "typical_volume": 1325572.0, "trend": 0.1993, "fair_value": 0.118192, "relative_strength": -6.617201, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.658908, "energy": 15.761694, "activity_lines": [ 0.202667, 0.197264, 0.195726, 0.196565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.2025, "volume": 2173107, "typical_volume": 1375659.7, "trend": 0.198583, "fair_value": 0.119026, "relative_strength": -2.081092, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.553316, "energy": 16.9982, "activity_lines": [ 0.202167, 0.198927, 0.196431, 0.196771 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.201, "volume": 1567780, "typical_volume": 1341693.0, "trend": 0.19815, "fair_value": 0.119881, "relative_strength": -3.558323, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.558072, "energy": 10.529462, "activity_lines": [ 0.201, 0.200136, 0.196957, 0.196927 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }