{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a79df730-56aa-4dfe-9f5f-570f0dbfd502", "symbol": "XSNR", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Europe Industrials Screened UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.235, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.005, "architecture_energy": 38.854, "architecture_maturity": 45.01, "architecture_confidence": 69.636, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.13, "rotation_up": 46.49, "upward_expansion": 75.09, "deceleration": 63.99, "rotation_down": 26.93, "downward_expansion": 6.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 18591.8, 18527.163647, 18424.21906, 18214.591408 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19165.0, "trend_reference": 18002.83334, "distance_from_trend": 0.064555, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15090.715584, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.269986, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.441155, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.070371, "excess_performance": 0.019136, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064555, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032695, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.269986, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006034, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014412, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020453, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070371, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.145978, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 945, "relative_activity": 1.621343, "balance": 2.145978, "dry_up": 0.82354, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026254, "annualized_volatility": 0.231048, "from_high_reference": -0.018922, "from_low_reference": 0.223643 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18002.83334, "fair_value_reference": 15090.715584, "structural_low": 15662.243164, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.001422, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.003216, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.072515, "worst_return": -0.0737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.015669, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.015228, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.110241, "worst_return": -0.092026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.028299, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.015049, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.107181, "worst_return": -0.215556, 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17850.63334, "fair_value": 14965.830968, "relative_strength": -2.678125, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.7821, "energy": 19.830415, "activity_lines": [ 18345.400013, 18373.527295, 18229.190491, 18067.015065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18227.0, "volume": 47, "typical_volume": 681.1, "trend": 17893.73334, "fair_value": 15003.247635, "relative_strength": -2.093322, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.936947, "energy": 18.614442, "activity_lines": [ 18261.466667, 18347.436382, 18258.547633, 18091.296785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18587.0, "volume": 919, "typical_volume": 601.05, "trend": 17947.200007, "fair_value": 15044.36302, "relative_strength": -1.340803, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.757202, "energy": 21.883698, "activity_lines": [ 18338.666667, 18386.545469, 18318.104775, 18136.023666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19165.0, "volume": 945, "typical_volume": 582.85, "trend": 18002.83334, "fair_value": 15090.715584, "relative_strength": 1.441155, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.005065, "energy": 38.853781, "activity_lines": [ 18591.8, 18527.163647, 18424.21906, 18214.591408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }