{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a79ff782-ae96-4028-a5d9-075c3300a144", "symbol": "INFOMEDIA", "name": "Infomedia Press Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.964, "architecture_energy": 24.364, "architecture_maturity": 33.358, "architecture_confidence": 63.89, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.57, "rotation_up": 18.48, "upward_expansion": 17.82, "deceleration": 55.05, "rotation_down": 52.14, "downward_expansion": 45.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.445333, 5.549091, 5.644762, 5.588194 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.31, "trend_reference": 5.542667, "distance_from_trend": -0.041977, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.390064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.169022, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.805562, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.070053, "excess_performance": -0.026343, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041977, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061943, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.169022, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083672, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118056, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040014, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.070053, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.54608, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45261, "relative_activity": 0.461633, "balance": 0.54608, "dry_up": 0.703622, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112415, "annualized_volatility": 0.398433, "from_high_reference": -0.340373, "from_low_reference": 0.18 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.542667, "fair_value_reference": 6.390064, "structural_low": 4.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.005102, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000893, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.486486, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.047293, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.057207, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.213592, "worst_return": -0.278351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.115243, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.087251, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.581081, "worst_return": -0.280992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.027027, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.006804, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.470588, "worst_return": -0.128065, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.198668, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.312187, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.182561, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.378333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050773, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118727, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088278, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125418, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024845, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.106771, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033233, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.078947, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.053476, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.95, "volume": 79752, "typical_volume": 60646.35, "trend": 4.771667, "fair_value": 4.509295, "relative_strength": -3.534445, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after 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"mixed", "direction": -4.232134, "energy": 5.152031, "activity_lines": [ 5.643333, 5.700182, 5.693048, 5.621656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.57, "volume": 34889, "typical_volume": 101065.65, "trend": 5.611667, "fair_value": 6.381795, "relative_strength": -5.117246, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.50121, "energy": 6.006034, "activity_lines": [ 5.6, 5.671636, 5.691905, 5.617054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.43, "volume": 122446, "typical_volume": 101590.2, "trend": 5.575667, "fair_value": 6.386795, "relative_strength": -9.512611, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.401862, "energy": 14.695722, "activity_lines": [ 5.532667, 5.616182, 5.675381, 5.605333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.31, "volume": 45261, "typical_volume": 98045.5, "trend": 5.542667, "fair_value": 6.390064, "relative_strength": -11.805562, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.963833, "energy": 24.364371, "activity_lines": [ 5.445333, 5.549091, 5.644762, 5.588194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }