{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7a20be2-f2c9-4559-872a-81daf0161762", "symbol": "XTRA", "name": "Xtract One Technologies Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 76.083, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.477, "architecture_energy": 18.69, "architecture_maturity": 33.357, "architecture_confidence": 72.184, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.21, "rotation_up": 25.46, "upward_expansion": 59.26, "deceleration": 89.02, "rotation_down": 26.21, "downward_expansion": 13.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.554, 0.567818, 0.546405, 0.532753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.54, "trend_reference": 0.531167, "distance_from_trend": 0.01663, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.594923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.09232, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.914353, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.018182, "excess_performance": -0.138603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01663, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059049, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.09232, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155047, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189144, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047352, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018182, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.798217, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 378900, "relative_activity": 0.746947, "balance": 0.798217, "dry_up": 0.852168, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103276, "annualized_volatility": 0.605903, "from_high_reference": -0.44898, "from_low_reference": 0.317073 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.531167, "fair_value_reference": 0.594923, "structural_low": 0.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.029976, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.34, "worst_return": -0.157143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.206349, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.159023, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.58, "worst_return": -0.27957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.206349, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.254899, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.86, "worst_return": -0.305556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.020619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.319149, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.413333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075472, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.55, "volume": 948700, "typical_volume": 646540.0, "trend": 0.546167, "fair_value": 0.601654, "relative_strength": -14.342428, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.705259, "energy": 46.309567, "activity_lines": [ 0.584, 0.566727, 0.528857, 0.527871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.59, "volume": 478600, "typical_volume": 624370.0, "trend": 0.544167, "fair_value": 0.599923, "relative_strength": -8.349033, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.860794, "energy": 28.665857, "activity_lines": [ 0.58, 0.574909, 0.536405, 0.530699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.56, "volume": 512200, "typical_volume": 610645.0, "trend": 0.5395, "fair_value": 0.598449, "relative_strength": -13.567108, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.209472, "energy": 15.62323, "activity_lines": [ 0.570667, 0.575455, 0.541, 0.53172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.55, "volume": 359400, "typical_volume": 522775.0, "trend": 0.5345, "fair_value": 0.596654, "relative_strength": -15.019783, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.65299, "energy": 10.359505, "activity_lines": [ 0.562667, 0.573, 0.544405, 0.532398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.54, "volume": 378900, "typical_volume": 507265.0, "trend": 0.531167, "fair_value": 0.594923, "relative_strength": -18.914353, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.476694, "energy": 18.690173, "activity_lines": [ 0.554, 0.567818, 0.546405, 0.532753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }