{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7a5e9a1-d062-45c9-87e4-9814be845f3d", "symbol": "INCOAX", "name": "InCoax Networks AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.575, "architecture_energy": 15.543, "architecture_maturity": 53.659, "architecture_confidence": 87.308, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.28, "rotation_up": 21.25, "upward_expansion": 51.09, "deceleration": 92.95, "rotation_down": 27.26, "downward_expansion": 17.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.9798, 1.026327, 1.01111, 0.911834 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.938, "trend_reference": 0.8108, "distance_from_trend": 0.156882, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.580526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.406527, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.73932, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.404192, "excess_performance": 0.342697, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.156882, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.257184, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.406527, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.275318, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007393, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.485178, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.404192, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.086615, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 868459, "relative_activity": 1.414764, "balance": 2.086615, "dry_up": 1.38624, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.319009, "annualized_volatility": 1.196055, "from_high_reference": -0.531, "from_low_reference": 1.380711 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.8108, "fair_value_reference": 1.580526, "structural_low": 0.43, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.123135, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.078823, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.026549, "worst_return": -0.168081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.208661, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.205151, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.207131, "worst_return": -0.245098, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.30709, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.374722, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.297244, "worst_return": -0.601019, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.455947, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.514676, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.21746, "worst_return": -0.575296, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179739, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110638, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.127785, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.176152, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0553, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065693, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137795, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072727, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.580052, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.180758, "active": false 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"energy": 23.330992, "activity_lines": [ 1.0588, 1.128509, 0.958243, 0.862744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.984, "volume": 459274, "typical_volume": 507826.75, "trend": 0.790433, "fair_value": 1.616917, "relative_strength": 6.693018, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.529419, "energy": 25.45746, "activity_lines": [ 1.008533, 1.112364, 0.9748, 0.876275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.065, "volume": 1203517, "typical_volume": 542430.7, "trend": 0.807267, "fair_value": 1.605514, "relative_strength": 15.117704, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.490326, "energy": 21.001121, "activity_lines": [ 1.019, 1.103018, 0.996767, 0.893989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.956, "volume": 872547, "typical_volume": 579780.7, "trend": 0.810133, "fair_value": 1.593108, "relative_strength": 3.38831, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.935194, "energy": 17.450519, "activity_lines": [ 1.001467, 1.0674, 1.005843, 0.903585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.938, "volume": 868459, "typical_volume": 613854.15, "trend": 0.8108, "fair_value": 1.580526, "relative_strength": 0.73932, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.57468, "energy": 15.543281, "activity_lines": [ 0.9798, 1.026327, 1.01111, 0.911834 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }