{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7a887c3-0566-42c8-8d25-2a66443b63fc", "symbol": "TE", "name": "T1 ENERGY INC", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.867, "architecture_energy": 32.213, "architecture_maturity": 46.446, "architecture_confidence": 46.71, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.62, "rotation_up": 16.82, "upward_expansion": 18.7, "deceleration": 68.23, "rotation_down": 63.04, "downward_expansion": 41.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 92.316666, 111.722181, 118.764333, 114.425182 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 100.849998, "trend_reference": 100.171, "distance_from_trend": 0.006778, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 77.699617, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.297947, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 45.339715, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 2.758852, "excess_performance": 2.813519, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006778, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.500127, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.297947, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.266702, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.453397, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002049, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.758852, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.923557, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19146, "relative_activity": 3.009265, "balance": 0.923557, "dry_up": 2.225711, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.327577, "annualized_volatility": 2.545503, "from_high_reference": -0.517464, "from_low_reference": 2.758852 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 100.171, "fair_value_reference": 77.699617, "structural_low": 26.83, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.620284, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.631359, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.005652, "worst_return": 0.234916, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.246377, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.287505, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.246377, "worst_return": 0.246377, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.127311, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.425, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.536232, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.357576, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.172674, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 132.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 132.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 132.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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96.198, "fair_value": 78.315963, "relative_strength": 28.91867, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.557232, "energy": 19.439856, "activity_lines": [ 111.655333, 130.386727, 125.144667, 115.783355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 72.0, "volume": 18795, "typical_volume": 5405.05, "trend": 97.703666, "fair_value": 77.899297, "relative_strength": 5.815729, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.023928, "energy": 39.383615, "activity_lines": [ 94.8, 117.828182, 120.424191, 114.222193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 100.849998, "volume": 19146, "typical_volume": 6362.35, "trend": 100.171, "fair_value": 77.699617, "relative_strength": 45.339715, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.866815, "energy": 32.212868, "activity_lines": [ 92.316666, 111.722181, 118.764333, 114.425182 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }