{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7a909bb-8d17-473c-a66f-fc55b9f9c2c0", "symbol": "BXX", "name": "Amundi EURO STOXX 50 Daily (-2x) Inverse UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.097, "architecture_energy": 73.838, "architecture_maturity": 52.475, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 25.98, "upward_expansion": 14.71, "deceleration": 44.24, "rotation_down": 59.97, "downward_expansion": 88.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.40248, 0.408265, 0.428445, 0.447766 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.3833, "trend_reference": 0.467113, "distance_from_trend": -0.179428, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.695034, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.448516, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.579694, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.209365, "excess_performance": -0.380256, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.179428, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07721, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.448516, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09077, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.355797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107609, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.209365, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.331193, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1499372, "relative_activity": 0.31056, "balance": 0.331193, "dry_up": 0.327582, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055751, "annualized_volatility": 0.339996, "from_high_reference": -0.382869, "from_low_reference": 0.005773 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.467113, "fair_value_reference": 0.695034, "structural_low": 0.3811, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.01465, "positive_rate": 0.372093, "directional_follow_through": 0.627907, "median_excess_return": -0.035014, "regime_survival": 0.883721, "best_return": 0.171628, "worst_return": -0.194459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.033472, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.080142, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.142749, "worst_return": -0.195837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.161199, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.26496, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.261352, "worst_return": -0.245814, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.16782, "energy": 74.421465, "activity_lines": [ 0.414687, 0.42238, 0.447244, 0.461956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4142, "volume": 1755277, "typical_volume": 5499280.9, "trend": 0.47403, "fair_value": 0.702555, "relative_strength": -29.757022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.334745, "energy": 66.186563, "activity_lines": [ 0.41476, 0.418956, 0.44172, 0.457853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4049, "volume": 1390864, "typical_volume": 5110052.6, "trend": 0.470517, "fair_value": 0.698883, "relative_strength": -30.826502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.244449, "energy": 56.40562, "activity_lines": [ 0.411627, 0.415145, 0.435814, 0.453393 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.3833, "volume": 1499372, "typical_volume": 4827962.65, "trend": 0.467113, "fair_value": 0.695034, "relative_strength": -35.579694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.096959, "energy": 73.838308, "activity_lines": [ 0.40248, 0.408265, 0.428445, 0.447766 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }