{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7b2d397-733c-4ef9-a074-e2111f12a9cd", "symbol": "RICHY", "name": "Richy Place 2002 Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.243, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.802, "architecture_energy": 12.375, "architecture_maturity": 27.998, "architecture_confidence": 60.58, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.36, "rotation_up": 43.77, "upward_expansion": 35.7, "deceleration": 35.38, "rotation_down": 22.23, "downward_expansion": 15.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.164, 0.160727, 0.159762, 0.160409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.17, "trend_reference": 0.162, "distance_from_trend": 0.049383, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.397628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.572465, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.075847, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.192325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049383, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039526, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.572465, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043799, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220758, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161375, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.024869, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1376800, "relative_activity": 0.346641, "balance": 2.024869, "dry_up": 2.107184, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131222, "annualized_volatility": 0.612602, "from_high_reference": -0.514286, "from_low_reference": 0.214286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.162, "fair_value_reference": 0.397628, "structural_low": 0.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.092593, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.069665, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.133333, "worst_return": -0.193548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.123127, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.073233, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.054054, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.254657, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.136463, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.116789, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.384287, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.305037, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.156725, "worst_return": -0.527778, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2023-06-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067568, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.078125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.118644, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.140351, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.217391, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055556, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.66, "volume": 514000, "typical_volume": 1206685.95, "trend": 0.720324, "fair_value": 0.878478, "relative_strength": -7.695905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.715496, "energy": 21.87226, "activity_lines": [ 0.154667, 0.155636, 0.157238, 0.159376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.17, "volume": 29539400, "typical_volume": 4373290.0, "trend": 0.161, "fair_value": 0.407692, "relative_strength": -28.216903, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.569211, "energy": 9.708983, "activity_lines": [ 0.16, 0.157818, 0.158286, 0.159978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.16, "volume": 1817400, "typical_volume": 4412030.0, "trend": 0.161, "fair_value": 0.404231, "relative_strength": -31.189908, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.955936, "energy": 12.822226, "activity_lines": [ 0.160667, 0.158182, 0.158429, 0.159914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.16, "volume": 743900, "typical_volume": 4180725.0, "trend": 0.161333, "fair_value": 0.400833, "relative_strength": -28.742833, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.722822, "energy": 12.097709, "activity_lines": [ 0.160667, 0.158364, 0.158619, 0.159849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.17, "volume": 1376800, "typical_volume": 3971830.0, "trend": 0.162, "fair_value": 0.397628, "relative_strength": -22.075847, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.802111, "energy": 12.374974, "activity_lines": [ 0.164, 0.160727, 0.159762, 0.160409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }