{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7bef5c4-f53d-44a4-a500-6e26065cba35", "symbol": "SSUS", "name": "DAY HAGAN SMART SECTOR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.081, "architecture_energy": 48.079, "architecture_maturity": 63.544, "architecture_confidence": 66.363, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.94, "rotation_up": 46.84, "upward_expansion": 77.75, "deceleration": 68.45, "rotation_down": 27.65, "downward_expansion": 6.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.151367, 54.92258, 54.389094, 53.152525 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 56.4869, "trend_reference": 51.704817, "distance_from_trend": 0.092488, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.761425, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.320978, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.620998, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.145547, "excess_performance": 0.019922, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092488, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041452, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.320978, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00766, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00621, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004864, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145547, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.530621, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 157150, "relative_activity": 1.019203, "balance": 2.530621, "dry_up": 0.599872, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028576, "annualized_volatility": 0.158769, "from_high_reference": -0.00411, "from_low_reference": 0.249434 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.704817, "fair_value_reference": 42.761425, "structural_low": 45.21, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.009277, "positive_rate": 0.657895, "directional_follow_through": 0.657895, "median_excess_return": -0.001864, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.069705, "worst_return": -0.052988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.037601, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.003861, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.125259, "worst_return": -0.049334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.070896, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.009106, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.116245, "worst_return": -0.082521, "sufficient": true }, { 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50.714684, "fair_value": 42.125999, "relative_strength": 1.434133, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.960631, "energy": 46.211743, "activity_lines": [ 54.541793, 54.562722, 52.979853, 51.893676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 55.49, "volume": 53139, "typical_volume": 168786.55, "trend": 50.941631, "fair_value": 42.25625, "relative_strength": 1.288434, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.656165, "energy": 52.434662, "activity_lines": [ 54.864093, 54.775384, 53.3624, 52.201761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 54.41, "volume": 68927, "typical_volume": 168985.6, "trend": 51.130826, "fair_value": 42.377885, "relative_strength": 0.867677, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.746135, "energy": 44.432666, "activity_lines": [ 54.736513, 54.732731, 53.613259, 52.425527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.202, "volume": 57082, "typical_volume": 150808.25, "trend": 51.29063, "fair_value": 42.496495, "relative_strength": 1.060515, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.016371, "energy": 39.910072, "activity_lines": [ 54.556533, 54.643384, 53.820245, 52.623667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.48, "volume": 86816, "typical_volume": 149149.4, "trend": 51.478963, "fair_value": 42.622026, "relative_strength": 0.471647, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.641485, "energy": 35.212258, "activity_lines": [ 54.5488, 54.599273, 54.025508, 52.829433 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.4869, "volume": 157150, "typical_volume": 154189.15, "trend": 51.704817, "fair_value": 42.761425, "relative_strength": 0.620998, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.081346, "energy": 48.079311, "activity_lines": [ 55.151367, 54.92258, 54.389094, 53.152525 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }