{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7c562fb-e929-4b73-be63-57d96d47c7d1", "symbol": "EX37", "name": "iShares (DE) I - iShares STOXX Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.951, "architecture_energy": 45.838, "architecture_maturity": 55.042, "architecture_confidence": 85.946, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.67, "rotation_up": 16.88, "upward_expansion": 6.74, "deceleration": 46.28, "rotation_down": 56.05, "downward_expansion": 77.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.274333, 40.494545, 41.204905, 41.634978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.884998, "trend_reference": 42.501167, "distance_from_trend": -0.038026, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 50.951474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.19757, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.708925, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.085449, "excess_performance": -0.259696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038026, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048588, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.19757, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007501, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257089, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027384, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.085449, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.495804, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.495804, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036519, "annualized_volatility": 0.247478, "from_high_reference": -0.181891, "from_low_reference": 0.064991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.501167, "fair_value_reference": 50.951474, "structural_low": 38.389999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.00432, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.016982, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.154841, "worst_return": -0.103217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.029007, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.056068, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.066943, "worst_return": -0.0935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.004373, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.008219, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.296567, "worst_return": -0.177179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105005, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.011794, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004071, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085662, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.123815, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153846, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 39.990002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1152.9, "trend": 43.251333, "fair_value": 51.297757, "relative_strength": -26.167919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.056942, "energy": 63.56051, "activity_lines": [ 40.556334, 41.148364, 41.621333, 42.187677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.945, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 631.45, "trend": 42.9865, "fair_value": 51.161891, "relative_strength": -28.334616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.737236, "energy": 69.035849, "activity_lines": [ 39.985001, 40.665364, 41.357143, 41.90985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.57, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 599.7, "trend": 42.729, "fair_value": 51.049327, "relative_strength": -24.713066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.537638, "energy": 55.808946, "activity_lines": [ 40.087334, 40.533, 41.263738, 41.753946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.884998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 536.2, "trend": 42.501167, "fair_value": 50.951474, "relative_strength": -25.708925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.950631, "energy": 45.838374, "activity_lines": [ 40.274333, 40.494545, 41.204905, 41.634978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }