{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7cabaed-55e0-40ca-92ae-3981cfeba86f", "symbol": "4001", "name": "Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.459, "architecture_energy": 90.615, "architecture_maturity": 86.031, "architecture_confidence": 82.558, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.17, "rotation_up": 8.02, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 85.54, "downward_expansion": 100.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.209333, 5.414364, 5.63555, 5.762901 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 5.19, "trend_reference": 5.934066, "distance_from_trend": -0.125389, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.04407, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.426143, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.719246, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.181666, "excess_performance": -0.149837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125389, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042365, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.426143, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055427, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167192, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059442, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181666, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.388971, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4127610, "relative_activity": 0.766028, "balance": 0.388971, "dry_up": 0.846158, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026345, "annualized_volatility": 0.137546, "from_high_reference": -0.322343, "from_low_reference": 0.027723 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.934066, "fair_value_reference": 9.04407, "structural_low": 5.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.004439, "positive_rate": 0.432432, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.012688, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.172477, "worst_return": -0.122867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.019588, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.050544, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.40936, "worst_return": -0.168011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.012383, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.111793, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.4271, "worst_return": -0.24254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 5.575333, 5.710915, 5.837635, 5.92163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.18, "volume": 4054684, "typical_volume": 5370409.35, "trend": 5.990978, "fair_value": 9.140124, "relative_strength": -17.453373, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.1968, "energy": 98.101943, "activity_lines": [ 5.407333, 5.601455, 5.767013, 5.867568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.14, "volume": 4690662, "typical_volume": 5345820.55, "trend": 5.961362, "fair_value": 9.094097, "relative_strength": -16.03688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.852555, "energy": 96.753977, "activity_lines": [ 5.274667, 5.496727, 5.696668, 5.812666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.19, "volume": 4127610, "typical_volume": 5388325.6, "trend": 5.934066, "fair_value": 9.04407, "relative_strength": -16.719246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.458876, "energy": 90.615066, "activity_lines": [ 5.209333, 5.414364, 5.63555, 5.762901 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }