{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7f00f5d-aa8a-4b7f-a5f2-f01357e1bbd5", "symbol": "PHO", "name": "INVESCO WATER RESOURCES ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.024, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 53.076, "architecture_energy": 51.699, "architecture_maturity": 6.756, "architecture_confidence": 60.643, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.87, "rotation_up": 66.77, "upward_expansion": 55.58, "deceleration": 27.75, "rotation_down": 18.01, "downward_expansion": 16.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.641607, 69.75342, 68.574996, 68.542578 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 73.31, "trend_reference": 69.196204, "distance_from_trend": 0.059451, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 66.10312, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109025, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.239383, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.010713, "excess_performance": -0.198166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059451, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012538, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109025, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070106, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092394, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115318, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010713, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.591964, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 491647, "relative_activity": 0.880734, "balance": 3.591964, "dry_up": 0.818316, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032825, "annualized_volatility": 0.162408, "from_high_reference": -0.01895, "from_low_reference": 0.155882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.196204, "fair_value_reference": 66.10312, "structural_low": 63.423426, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014702, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.004734, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.036273, "worst_return": -0.09547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.100365, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003459, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.118816, "worst_return": -0.031668, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.054955, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.050508, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.134516, "worst_return": -0.007319, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.114124, "energy": 19.570504, "activity_lines": [ 68.863758, 67.800202, 67.582988, 68.292399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 69.03, "volume": 364420, "typical_volume": 546934.8, "trend": 69.306293, "fair_value": 65.833288, "relative_strength": -12.237581, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.966066, "energy": 20.80779, "activity_lines": [ 69.078188, 68.149864, 67.703686, 68.270109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 68.43, "volume": 572946, "typical_volume": 559579.1, "trend": 69.200035, "fair_value": 65.906096, "relative_strength": -11.201334, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.72902, "energy": 16.523256, "activity_lines": [ 68.936153, 68.363269, 67.785778, 68.213574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.17, "volume": 398202, "typical_volume": 547019.75, "trend": 69.180399, "fair_value": 65.994291, "relative_strength": -9.062188, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.546287, "energy": 26.426567, "activity_lines": [ 69.294547, 68.817254, 68.038019, 68.276152 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.31, "volume": 491647, "typical_volume": 558224.15, "trend": 69.196204, "fair_value": 66.10312, "relative_strength": -9.239383, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.076327, "energy": 51.699214, "activity_lines": [ 70.641607, 69.75342, 68.574996, 68.542578 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }