{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7f94a31-5275-455f-9f75-4bc65e79860f", "symbol": "VAPX", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed Asia Pacific ex Japan UCITS ETF USD Distributing", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.78, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.087, "architecture_energy": 21.177, "architecture_maturity": 65.178, "architecture_confidence": 86.859, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.81, "rotation_up": 16.52, "upward_expansion": 45.73, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 39.05, "downward_expansion": 26.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.736999, 38.914891, 38.972174, 37.756865 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 37.849998, "trend_reference": 35.971451, "distance_from_trend": 0.052223, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.328091, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.494388, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.987805, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.209694, "excess_performance": 0.038802, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052223, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132801, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.494388, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159901, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029878, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222584, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.209694, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.750486, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 90280, "relative_activity": 1.404405, "balance": 0.750486, "dry_up": 1.458972, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065259, "annualized_volatility": 0.317322, "from_high_reference": -0.131682, "from_low_reference": 0.561579 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.971451, "fair_value_reference": 25.328091, "structural_low": 30.455, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.014751, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.00912, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.123255, "worst_return": -0.006157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.041127, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.026159, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.287427, "worst_return": -0.021716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.006264, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041122, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.01907, "worst_return": -0.010959, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015119, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022952, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029581, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006371, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010152, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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37.317213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.009998, "volume": 66054, "typical_volume": 58793.7, "trend": 35.381836, "fair_value": 25.114649, "relative_strength": 7.945264, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.00167, "energy": 26.699996, "activity_lines": [ 38.854, 39.891134, 38.982705, 37.51033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.035, "volume": 128377, "typical_volume": 62709.2, "trend": 35.681859, "fair_value": 25.217583, "relative_strength": 4.096832, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.698739, "energy": 23.681516, "activity_lines": [ 37.995333, 39.309294, 38.950123, 37.616985 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.849998, "volume": 90280, "typical_volume": 64283.45, "trend": 35.971451, "fair_value": 25.328091, "relative_strength": 2.987805, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.086849, "energy": 21.177111, "activity_lines": [ 37.736999, 38.914891, 38.972174, 37.756865 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }