{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a80150b0-362a-41ec-a568-3a59d46b759c", "symbol": "INOX", "name": "POSCO-Thainox Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 68.421, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.389, "architecture_energy": 37.072, "architecture_maturity": 7.751, "architecture_confidence": 68.595, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.59, "rotation_up": 19.45, "upward_expansion": 22.45, "deceleration": 52.02, "rotation_down": 57.05, "downward_expansion": 52.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.141333, 4.164727, 4.256381, 4.246108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.14, "trend_reference": 4.232667, "distance_from_trend": -0.021893, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.575004, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095083, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.79354, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014286, "excess_performance": -0.206611, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021893, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036064, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.095083, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162126, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127935, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214754, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014286, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.317598, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 147400, "relative_activity": 0.110214, "balance": 0.317598, "dry_up": 0.42263, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037161, "annualized_volatility": 0.384944, "from_high_reference": -0.218868, "from_low_reference": 0.217647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.232667, "fair_value_reference": 4.575004, "structural_low": 3.6, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021981, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.01253, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.078261, "worst_return": -0.053571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.035714, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.117075, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.355678, "worst_return": -0.013659, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.098214, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.066606, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075193, "worst_return": -0.151288, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 4.181333, 4.268, 4.302095, 4.266753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.14, "volume": 1714300, "typical_volume": 1390513.5, "trend": 4.218, "fair_value": 4.616764, "relative_strength": -15.402474, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.68197, "energy": 27.486236, "activity_lines": [ 4.16, 4.224364, 4.291619, 4.262882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.18, "volume": 267200, "typical_volume": 1376609.0, "trend": 4.234, "fair_value": 4.600425, "relative_strength": -14.326413, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.794241, "energy": 28.187154, "activity_lines": [ 4.161333, 4.205455, 4.284286, 4.26043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.12, "volume": 132000, "typical_volume": 1375989.0, "trend": 4.248, "fair_value": 4.585524, "relative_strength": -14.186768, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.432862, "energy": 29.984801, "activity_lines": [ 4.145333, 4.180727, 4.269905, 4.253075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.14, "volume": 147400, "typical_volume": 1337399.0, "trend": 4.232667, "fair_value": 4.575004, "relative_strength": -12.79354, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.388799, "energy": 37.071947, "activity_lines": [ 4.141333, 4.164727, 4.256381, 4.246108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }