{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a80317a3-ab4d-44d3-a5df-754c5e4cac0e", "symbol": "DIC", "name": "Branicks Group AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -84.156, "architecture_energy": 66.819, "architecture_maturity": 83.014, "architecture_confidence": 93.179, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.03, "rotation_up": 26.7, "upward_expansion": 11.05, "deceleration": 55.41, "rotation_down": 56.65, "downward_expansion": 82.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.928267, 0.957982, 1.040952, 1.160284 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.802, "trend_reference": 1.353433, "distance_from_trend": -0.407433, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.130122, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.623496, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -60.411189, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.592065, "excess_performance": -0.766312, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.407433, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179074, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.623496, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164898, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.604112, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212071, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.592065, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.957732, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23, "relative_activity": 0.014762, "balance": 0.957732, "dry_up": 1.245146, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142816, "annualized_volatility": 0.602738, "from_high_reference": -0.626977, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.353433, "fair_value_reference": 2.130122, "structural_low": 0.802, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.015588, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.628571, "median_excess_return": -0.042826, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.436047, "worst_return": -0.509887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.1879, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.167258, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.03125, "worst_return": -0.628702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.268656, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.303916, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.094086, "worst_return": -0.516092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.178601, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.174731, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029197, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053991, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009828, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022403, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019438, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129885, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071503, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.413743, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.385, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 49.8, "trend": 6.308979, "fair_value": 9.993649, "relative_strength": -34.305905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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1741.45, "trend": 1.4461, "fair_value": 2.197378, "relative_strength": -46.689596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.283805, "energy": 45.694836, "activity_lines": [ 1.045267, 1.023164, 1.125452, 1.260901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.97, "volume": 4790, "typical_volume": 1980.95, "trend": 1.4209, "fair_value": 2.174814, "relative_strength": -52.400351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.251423, "energy": 43.089165, "activity_lines": [ 1.035067, 1.010564, 1.100705, 1.230185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.926, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 1556.9, "trend": 1.390567, "fair_value": 2.153218, "relative_strength": -53.783643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.796167, "energy": 49.046799, "activity_lines": [ 1.001667, 0.993236, 1.075681, 1.198256 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.802, "volume": 23, "typical_volume": 1558.05, "trend": 1.353433, "fair_value": 2.130122, "relative_strength": -60.411189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.155578, "energy": 66.818559, "activity_lines": [ 0.928267, 0.957982, 1.040952, 1.160284 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }