{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a80488c4-bf99-48e0-9ea5-619c49b807b6", "symbol": "CMET", "name": "Capital Metals Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.143, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -41.985, "architecture_energy": 47.177, "architecture_maturity": 12.698, "architecture_confidence": 67.619, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.73, "rotation_up": 19.53, "upward_expansion": 16.98, "deceleration": 45.08, "rotation_down": 63.29, "downward_expansion": 58.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.044867, 0.046418, 0.048119, 0.048559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.042, "trend_reference": 0.048483, "distance_from_trend": -0.133723, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.033202, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.264999, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.744395, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05618, "excess_performance": -0.107415, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133723, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003449, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.264999, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.383049, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157444, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.320355, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05618, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.543644, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2538370, "relative_activity": 1.925726, "balance": 0.543644, "dry_up": 0.966518, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128205, "annualized_volatility": 0.27712, "from_high_reference": -0.288136, "from_low_reference": 0.555556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.048483, "fair_value_reference": 0.033202, "structural_low": 0.039, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.206621, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.182757, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.339623, "worst_return": 0.07362, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.273816, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.225987, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.566038, "worst_return": -0.018405, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.396226, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.464349, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.396226, "worst_return": -0.396226, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.377358, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.510549, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.377358, "worst_return": -0.377358, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101124, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042945, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016393, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.483333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.209302, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010101, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082474, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.0115, "volume": 3220597, "typical_volume": 2179887.7, "trend": 0.028317, "fair_value": 0.079574, "relative_strength": -65.338784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.359013, 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"relative_strength": -1.046234, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.293463, "energy": 18.93345, "activity_lines": [ 0.048033, 0.048855, 0.049483, 0.049318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0475, "volume": 500493, "typical_volume": 1339618.55, "trend": 0.04865, "fair_value": 0.032791, "relative_strength": -2.743982, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.466118, "energy": 22.057115, "activity_lines": [ 0.047767, 0.048473, 0.049283, 0.049254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0445, "volume": 1095185, "typical_volume": 1263251.8, "trend": 0.048617, "fair_value": 0.033006, "relative_strength": -10.2488, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.79208, "energy": 36.154858, "activity_lines": [ 0.0466, 0.047618, 0.048807, 0.048986 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.042, "volume": 2538370, "typical_volume": 1318136.65, "trend": 0.048483, "fair_value": 0.033202, "relative_strength": -15.744395, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.984725, "energy": 47.177008, "activity_lines": [ 0.044867, 0.046418, 0.048119, 0.048559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }