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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.246, "architecture_energy": 51.89, "architecture_maturity": 13.02, "architecture_confidence": 91.144, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.89, "rotation_up": 16.42, "upward_expansion": 9.46, "deceleration": 43.47, "rotation_down": 59.79, "downward_expansion": 82.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 1367.666667, 1424.96618, 1603.228915, 1700.095057 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1560.0, "trend_reference": 1758.235018, "distance_from_trend": -0.112747, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 681.441922, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.289263, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.211296, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.071698, "excess_performance": -0.51307, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112747, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067296, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.289263, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.836983, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192113, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279939, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071698, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.029044, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15201415, "relative_activity": 1.304293, "balance": 1.029044, "dry_up": 1.102882, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.201731, "annualized_volatility": 0.799996, "from_high_reference": -0.380523, "from_low_reference": 1.635631 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1758.235018, "fair_value_reference": 681.441922, 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.531992, "energy": 78.535384, "activity_lines": [ 1302.374398, 1479.361692, 1669.978441, 1740.188204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1325.0, "volume": 14882184, "typical_volume": 11682598.65, "trend": 1752.502136, "fair_value": 671.835683, "relative_strength": -28.635714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.7768, "energy": 71.903759, "activity_lines": [ 1285.821908, 1426.21663, 1623.740603, 1712.51455 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 1560.0, "volume": 15201415, "typical_volume": 11654906.25, "trend": 1758.235018, "fair_value": 681.441922, "relative_strength": -19.211296, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.24615, "energy": 51.89022, "activity_lines": [ 1367.666667, 1424.96618, 1603.228915, 1700.095057 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }