{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8077628-4173-402d-9f6b-06a800af8c95", "symbol": "5704", "name": "Hotel Royal Chihpen", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.263, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.012, "architecture_energy": 11.117, "architecture_maturity": 19.282, "architecture_confidence": 60.261, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.56, "rotation_up": 30.1, "upward_expansion": 29.56, "deceleration": 47.92, "rotation_down": 18.68, "downward_expansion": 40.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.66, 21.595455, 21.507857, 21.605806 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.6, "trend_reference": 21.978333, "distance_from_trend": -0.017214, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.866885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.380501, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.269282, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.033557, "excess_performance": -0.474929, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017214, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074651, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.380501, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060986, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.382693, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073158, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033557, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.46895, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52005, "relative_activity": 0.381393, "balance": 0.46895, "dry_up": 0.383659, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022258, "annualized_volatility": 0.051349, "from_high_reference": -0.272727, "from_low_reference": 0.033493 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.978333, "fair_value_reference": 34.866885, "structural_low": 20.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.026239, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.057297, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.213576, "worst_return": -0.129921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.045242, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.147285, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.126733, "worst_return": -0.178309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.089109, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.224992, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.361585, "worst_return": -0.204626, "sufficient": true }, { 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"active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055651, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028713, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028283, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111328, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077258, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.103859, "energy": 25.790798, "activity_lines": [ 21.44, 21.359091, 21.471905, 21.875306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.5, "volume": 153062, "typical_volume": 154564.85, "trend": 22.646395, "fair_value": 35.948765, "relative_strength": -38.364158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.361911, "energy": 21.112184, "activity_lines": [ 21.48, 21.388182, 21.461429, 21.78898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.65, "volume": 50011, "typical_volume": 146415.4, "trend": 22.488062, "fair_value": 35.661591, "relative_strength": -38.298755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.014777, "energy": 16.953204, "activity_lines": [ 21.556667, 21.444545, 21.468095, 21.724696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.9, "volume": 71020, "typical_volume": 141365.4, "trend": 22.321395, "fair_value": 35.378112, "relative_strength": -35.756964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.845101, "energy": 9.325734, "activity_lines": [ 21.686667, 21.540909, 21.499524, 21.686757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.6, "volume": 36220, "typical_volume": 136355.55, "trend": 22.133333, "fair_value": 35.097054, "relative_strength": -37.161576, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.886678, "energy": 11.47289, "activity_lines": [ 21.676667, 21.571818, 21.502857, 21.640215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 21.6, "volume": 52005, "typical_volume": 136355.4, "trend": 21.978333, "fair_value": 34.866885, "relative_strength": -38.269282, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.011936, "energy": 11.116535, "activity_lines": [ 21.66, 21.595455, 21.507857, 21.605806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }