{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a80c01db-cde3-4d33-8a8c-af383f9efe88", "symbol": "O3P", "name": "\u00d6sterreichische Post AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.384, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.541, "architecture_energy": 19.395, "architecture_maturity": 27.689, "architecture_confidence": 68.507, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.62, "rotation_up": 24.82, "upward_expansion": 24.53, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 41.29, "downward_expansion": 58.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.083334, 32.173637, 32.157518, 32.26214 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 31.6, "trend_reference": 32.28162, "distance_from_trend": -0.021115, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.253674, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.118439, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.793641, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021513, "excess_performance": -0.086152, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021115, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032294, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.118439, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024942, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047936, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058168, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021513, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.599166, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2599, "relative_activity": 0.525762, "balance": 1.599166, "dry_up": 0.596009, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030794, "annualized_volatility": 0.169928, "from_high_reference": -0.082163, "from_low_reference": 0.160888 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.28162, "fair_value_reference": 28.253674, "structural_low": 30.049999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.001955, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000477, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.138889, "worst_return": -0.091803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.044108, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.021374, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.088525, "worst_return": -0.141534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024119, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.051666, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.194158, "worst_return": -0.242477, 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16.340478, "activity_lines": [ 32.269999, 32.068181, 32.252906, 32.223582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.0, "volume": 2936, "typical_volume": 6392.95, "trend": 31.941659, "fair_value": 28.135693, "relative_strength": 1.645534, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.053838, "energy": 10.839039, "activity_lines": [ 32.203333, 32.090908, 32.209965, 32.232934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.650002, "volume": 5714, "typical_volume": 6553.05, "trend": 32.049927, "fair_value": 28.164474, "relative_strength": 4.485583, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.714777, "energy": 19.573171, "activity_lines": [ 32.376667, 32.235454, 32.234623, 32.278633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.450001, "volume": 1780, "typical_volume": 5482.9, "trend": 32.165754, "fair_value": 28.194951, "relative_strength": 2.631471, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.055698, "energy": 19.305054, "activity_lines": [ 32.410001, 32.304546, 32.244639, 32.304444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.15, "volume": 1692, "typical_volume": 5085.95, "trend": 32.239967, "fair_value": 28.227564, "relative_strength": -0.466172, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.958097, "energy": 7.819167, "activity_lines": [ 32.333334, 32.297273, 32.227376, 32.303428 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.6, "volume": 2599, "typical_volume": 4943.3, "trend": 32.28162, "fair_value": 28.253674, "relative_strength": -4.793641, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.54111, "energy": 19.394592, "activity_lines": [ 32.083334, 32.173637, 32.157518, 32.26214 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }