{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a80d97c4-5547-45a6-94d2-752c8e67daf2", "symbol": "DMLP", "name": "Dorchester Minerals LP", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.174, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.932, "architecture_energy": 9.021, "architecture_maturity": 21.646, "architecture_confidence": 70.656, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.37, "rotation_up": 39.91, "upward_expansion": 29.66, "deceleration": 48.87, "rotation_down": 20.17, "downward_expansion": 20.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.150977, 25.855445, 26.242532, 26.331142 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 26.08, "trend_reference": 26.047565, "distance_from_trend": 0.001245, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.113999, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038465, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.997179, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.081736, "excess_performance": -0.105718, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001245, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057216, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038465, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012017, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069972, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039198, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081736, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.746909, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 879499, "relative_activity": 0.946489, "balance": 0.746909, "dry_up": 1.53543, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054438, "annualized_volatility": 0.217983, "from_high_reference": -0.097265, "from_low_reference": 0.312701 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.047565, "fair_value_reference": 25.113999, "structural_low": 23.915886, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.01831, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.006793, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.265957, "worst_return": -0.046475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.08979, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.007545, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.327633, "worst_return": 0.01669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.170815, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.031117, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.254137, "worst_return": 0.103485, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009094, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051042, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037332, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052508, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.060838, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", 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"fair_value": 25.022062, "relative_strength": -11.293049, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.313073, "energy": 39.796021, "activity_lines": [ 25.109139, 25.818497, 26.412759, 26.195156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.964458, "volume": 991329, "typical_volume": 828246.3, "trend": 25.596319, "fair_value": 25.047638, "relative_strength": -4.560462, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.795505, "energy": 34.993362, "activity_lines": [ 25.311822, 25.766724, 26.348438, 26.229273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.478983, "volume": 1999007, "typical_volume": 872970.2, "trend": 25.776366, "fair_value": 25.069083, "relative_strength": -0.825496, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.927226, "energy": 14.376336, "activity_lines": [ 25.735716, 25.809512, 26.33112, 26.286219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.307475, "volume": 1837188, "typical_volume": 924242.3, "trend": 25.914804, "fair_value": 25.091018, "relative_strength": -1.690975, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.90068, "energy": 6.621588, "activity_lines": [ 26.003842, 25.84259, 26.297182, 26.320484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.08, "volume": 879499, "typical_volume": 929222.35, "trend": 26.047565, "fair_value": 25.113999, "relative_strength": -6.997179, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.931953, "energy": 9.020864, "activity_lines": [ 26.150977, 25.855445, 26.242532, 26.331142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }