{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8102638-e205-4a79-9427-54efaf4686e4", "symbol": "300530", "name": "Hunan Lead Power Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.935, "architecture_energy": 39.649, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.354, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.03, "rotation_up": 27.13, "upward_expansion": 18.0, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 43.3, "downward_expansion": 70.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.06, 17.638909, 19.195571, 20.973785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.0, "trend_reference": 23.437333, "distance_from_trend": -0.189328, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.615962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.195459, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.753896, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.33844, "excess_performance": -0.34584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189328, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144259, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.195459, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224535, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.337539, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039717, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.33844, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.460367, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46728177, "relative_activity": 3.010735, "balance": 0.460367, "dry_up": 2.385523, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127571, "annualized_volatility": 0.60238, "from_high_reference": -0.577778, "from_low_reference": 0.339915 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.437333, "fair_value_reference": 23.615962, "structural_low": 14.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.04573, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.023025, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.576292, "worst_return": -0.198588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.05941, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.000268, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.359727, "worst_return": -0.278882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024943, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028677, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.218072, "worst_return": -0.336717, "sufficient": true }, { 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17.666, 19.216182, 21.542952, 23.226602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.5, "volume": 29040484, "typical_volume": 10308894.25, "trend": 24.721667, "fair_value": 23.730449, "relative_strength": -49.127217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.731394, "energy": 88.008089, "activity_lines": [ 17.136667, 18.471273, 20.879571, 22.671957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.53, "volume": 14890192, "typical_volume": 10557138.7, "trend": 24.334667, "fair_value": 23.684872, "relative_strength": -46.447307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.71686, "energy": 81.548589, "activity_lines": [ 16.490667, 17.679273, 20.178571, 22.078946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.94, "volume": 15324806, "typical_volume": 10859015.0, "trend": 23.921333, "fair_value": 23.640128, "relative_strength": -47.631375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.050782, "energy": 77.80447, "activity_lines": [ 15.851333, 16.945455, 19.483048, 21.472839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.879999, "volume": 71155069, "typical_volume": 13675784.45, "trend": 23.694, "fair_value": 23.633718, "relative_strength": -24.571842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.790759, "energy": 54.252418, "activity_lines": [ 17.406666, 17.446909, 19.411524, 21.276624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.0, "volume": 46728177, "typical_volume": 15520520.8, "trend": 23.437333, "fair_value": 23.615962, "relative_strength": -33.753896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.934537, "energy": 39.649132, "activity_lines": [ 18.06, 17.638909, 19.195571, 20.973785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }