{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a81a32f5-5481-4919-a724-87ceee955f69", "symbol": "PXI", "name": "INVESCO DORSEY WRIGHT ENERGY MOMENTUM ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.727, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.581, "architecture_energy": 30.322, "architecture_maturity": 19.726, "architecture_confidence": 60.387, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.69, "rotation_up": 59.57, "upward_expansion": 67.16, "deceleration": 57.48, "rotation_down": 13.64, "downward_expansion": 12.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.481373, 57.593396, 57.668146, 57.410236 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 57.3414, "trend_reference": 56.286115, "distance_from_trend": 0.018749, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.352719, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.237067, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.772111, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.088999, "excess_performance": -0.098455, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018749, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069169, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.237067, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057936, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027721, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035675, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088999, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.750266, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15150, "relative_activity": 0.151698, "balance": 6.750266, "dry_up": 0.787666, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047156, "annualized_volatility": 0.252957, "from_high_reference": -0.080478, "from_low_reference": 0.419418 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.286115, "fair_value_reference": 46.352719, "structural_low": 51.587959, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.060564, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": 0.02187, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.217667, "worst_return": -0.140676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.08083, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.083545, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.265148, "worst_return": -0.072275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.069993, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.002962, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.482363, "worst_return": -0.075049, 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56.733825, 56.813979, 57.41634, 56.793271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.1399, "volume": 113360, "typical_volume": 96589.1, "trend": 55.498515, "fair_value": 46.153521, "relative_strength": 6.408439, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.293737, "energy": 21.55427, "activity_lines": [ 57.75636, 57.138689, 57.560063, 57.05869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.544, "volume": 162759, "typical_volume": 101649.05, "trend": 55.937926, "fair_value": 46.264195, "relative_strength": 6.273291, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.132112, "energy": 33.533553, "activity_lines": [ 58.6096, 57.561803, 57.725688, 57.319689 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.3414, "volume": 15150, "typical_volume": 99869.45, "trend": 56.286115, "fair_value": 46.352719, "relative_strength": -2.772111, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.581204, "energy": 30.322435, "activity_lines": [ 58.481373, 57.593396, 57.668146, 57.410236 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }