{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a81b7c1a-4bc8-456a-9ae0-3ea3ec3f8a0c", "symbol": "JPSA", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - USD Ultra-Short Income Active ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.561, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.602, "architecture_energy": 51.945, "architecture_maturity": 78.174, "architecture_confidence": 50.719, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.2, "rotation_up": 44.42, "upward_expansion": 72.08, "deceleration": 65.46, "rotation_down": 27.64, "downward_expansion": 22.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 109.446, 109.556727, 108.763619, 108.18043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 108.919998, "trend_reference": 107.345333, "distance_from_trend": 0.014669, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 105.925, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.028275, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.297843, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.03852, "excess_performance": -0.132372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014669, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012062, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.028275, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019108, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122978, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00766, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.03852, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.31654, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 298, "relative_activity": 0.098347, "balance": 1.31654, "dry_up": 0.29966, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005954, "annualized_volatility": 0.055921, "from_high_reference": -0.015279, "from_low_reference": 0.0584 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.345333, "fair_value_reference": 105.925, "structural_low": 104.080002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.002034, "positive_rate": 0.567568, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.01362, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.03426, "worst_return": -0.0481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.012923, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.029256, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.066438, "worst_return": -0.064876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013542, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.102962, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.107015, "worst_return": -0.029003, 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"close": 109.82, "volume": 1007, "typical_volume": 3986.0, "trend": 106.930666, "fair_value": 105.714231, "relative_strength": -9.496098, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.415294, "energy": 88.468463, "activity_lines": [ 109.922666, 109.335454, 108.335333, 107.729161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 110.07, "volume": 881, "typical_volume": 3951.2, "trend": 107.111999, "fair_value": 105.791667, "relative_strength": -8.849564, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.193479, "energy": 88.99268, "activity_lines": [ 109.999333, 109.568909, 108.549, 107.931698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 109.300003, "volume": 1446, "typical_volume": 4015.75, "trend": 107.252666, "fair_value": 105.861987, "relative_strength": -9.73784, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.382403, "energy": 64.128624, "activity_lines": [ 109.764001, 109.612728, 108.676524, 108.07286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 108.919998, "volume": 298, "typical_volume": 3030.1, "trend": 107.345333, "fair_value": 105.925, "relative_strength": -12.297843, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.602442, "energy": 51.944823, "activity_lines": [ 109.446, 109.556727, 108.763619, 108.18043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }