{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a81d9b76-2596-4521-9dd1-c62b45974fdc", "symbol": "PNI", "name": "Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 89.494, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.298, "architecture_energy": 37.795, "architecture_maturity": 42.999, "architecture_confidence": 64.689, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.96, "rotation_up": 49.98, "upward_expansion": 72.71, "deceleration": 66.43, "rotation_down": 28.2, "downward_expansion": 13.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.209333, 17.121818, 16.561476, 16.183596 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.83, "trend_reference": 16.006971, "distance_from_trend": 0.176362, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.679182, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.200956, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.001598, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.09685, "excess_performance": 0.033144, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.176362, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000841, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.200956, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118607, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060016, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149854, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09685, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.156636, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8464429, "relative_activity": 2.445953, "balance": 1.156636, "dry_up": 1.439553, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076678, "annualized_volatility": 0.549554, "from_high_reference": -0.194852, "from_low_reference": 0.530894 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.006971, "fair_value_reference": 15.679182, "structural_low": 12.3, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.03609, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.023905, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.121242, "worst_return": -0.176647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.074705, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.11533, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.205911, "worst_return": -0.20599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030946, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053175, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.447094, "worst_return": -0.191754, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 17.352001, 16.649091, 16.029, 15.908817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.66, "volume": 2707593, "typical_volume": 3553647.95, "trend": 16.02302, "fair_value": 15.530398, "relative_strength": 2.68678, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.568245, "energy": 66.133247, "activity_lines": [ 17.570667, 16.901819, 16.230476, 16.017599 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.71, "volume": 2923632, "typical_volume": 3557572.05, "trend": 15.97575, "fair_value": 15.570174, "relative_strength": -7.801808, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.329605, "energy": 54.044908, "activity_lines": [ 17.008667, 16.774546, 16.235619, 15.997404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.98, "volume": 5831129, "typical_volume": 3547788.6, "trend": 15.948278, "fair_value": 15.615805, "relative_strength": -7.731168, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.253965, "energy": 22.356443, "activity_lines": [ 16.61, 16.693637, 16.268191, 15.997679 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.83, "volume": 8464429, "typical_volume": 3460585.2, "trend": 16.006971, "fair_value": 15.679182, "relative_strength": 6.001598, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.298084, "energy": 37.795231, "activity_lines": [ 17.209333, 17.121818, 16.561476, 16.183596 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }