{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8210109-f681-4dee-b558-3d3cece86f7b", "symbol": "000019", "name": "Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.616, "architecture_energy": 41.2, "architecture_maturity": 60.272, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.07, "rotation_up": 27.18, "upward_expansion": 18.82, "deceleration": 42.88, "rotation_down": 40.74, "downward_expansion": 68.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.042667, 6.010694, 6.314988, 6.587861 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.11, "trend_reference": 6.85326, "distance_from_trend": -0.108453, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.62532, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.07778, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.577768, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173207, "excess_performance": -0.180607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108453, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049132, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.07778, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197675, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145778, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009946, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173207, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.213983, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56449992, "relative_activity": 0.920489, "balance": 0.213983, "dry_up": 0.566952, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061916, "annualized_volatility": 0.326823, "from_high_reference": -0.287879, "from_low_reference": 0.083333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.85326, "fair_value_reference": 6.62532, "structural_low": 5.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.010454, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.023604, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.084302, "worst_return": -0.087537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007443, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.047729, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.121417, "worst_return": -0.092295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.093023, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.001746, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.124451, "worst_return": -0.078645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -64.519165, "energy": 78.021362, "activity_lines": [ 5.935333, 6.065479, 6.540099, 6.758814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.87, "volume": 29768656, "typical_volume": 67686615.5, "trend": 6.91426, "fair_value": 6.641408, "relative_strength": -15.919116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.839022, "energy": 73.671611, "activity_lines": [ 5.918667, 6.00198, 6.442157, 6.688862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.12, "volume": 24692427, "typical_volume": 63459603.4, "trend": 6.88126, "fair_value": 6.633426, "relative_strength": -10.491626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.590504, "energy": 52.794006, "activity_lines": [ 5.996667, 6.002893, 6.375549, 6.63762 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.11, "volume": 56449992, "typical_volume": 61326071.7, "trend": 6.85326, "fair_value": 6.62532, "relative_strength": -14.577768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.61552, "energy": 41.19975, "activity_lines": [ 6.042667, 6.010694, 6.314988, 6.587861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }