{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a824426c-6da4-4e83-b899-5180ed5e06b8", "symbol": "PFLS", "name": "PICTON Long Short Equity Alternative Fund Class ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.164, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.833, "architecture_energy": 53.781, "architecture_maturity": 76.614, "architecture_confidence": 53.595, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.01, "rotation_up": 47.71, "upward_expansion": 75.37, "deceleration": 71.06, "rotation_down": 28.66, "downward_expansion": 13.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.811333, 22.804545, 22.548143, 22.259806 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.969999, "trend_reference": 21.936667, "distance_from_trend": 0.047105, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.681998, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.229526, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.338118, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.086566, "excess_performance": -0.033856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047105, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029939, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.229526, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011772, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043381, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007341, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086566, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.592127, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51700, "relative_activity": 1.556057, "balance": 2.592127, "dry_up": 1.009029, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014768, "annualized_volatility": 0.093011, "from_high_reference": -0.026282, "from_low_reference": 0.18037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.936667, "fair_value_reference": 18.681998, "structural_low": 20.280001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.008741, "positive_rate": 0.682927, "directional_follow_through": 0.682927, "median_excess_return": -0.005777, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 0.047672, "worst_return": -0.045179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.03231, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.001251, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.096154, "worst_return": -0.068105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.067359, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.002184, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.096584, "worst_return": -0.044504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009879, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014722, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020278, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005214, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03789, 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"fair_value": 18.489842, "relative_strength": -3.032493, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.270004, "energy": 85.49857, "activity_lines": [ 22.828666, 22.645636, 22.24519, 22.004021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.790001, "volume": 23400, "typical_volume": 33960.0, "trend": 21.782, "fair_value": 18.537548, "relative_strength": -2.747597, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.827824, "energy": 74.316211, "activity_lines": [ 22.826, 22.706363, 22.329047, 22.072387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.82, "volume": 24900, "typical_volume": 32985.0, "trend": 21.835666, "fair_value": 18.585191, "relative_strength": -2.709474, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.834602, "energy": 58.589781, "activity_lines": [ 22.818667, 22.758182, 22.411476, 22.139355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.620001, "volume": 34100, "typical_volume": 32635.0, "trend": 21.887333, "fair_value": 18.632124, "relative_strength": -2.935318, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.000187, "energy": 47.60035, "activity_lines": [ 22.750667, 22.755091, 22.467048, 22.189957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.969999, "volume": 51700, "typical_volume": 33225.0, "trend": 21.936667, "fair_value": 18.681998, "relative_strength": -4.338118, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.832698, "energy": 53.781169, "activity_lines": [ 22.811333, 22.804545, 22.548143, 22.259806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }