{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8292a81-3297-4777-a6ac-5c88367c67f5", "symbol": "GRG", "name": "Greggs plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 94.363, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.749, "architecture_energy": 68.168, "architecture_maturity": 17.83, "architecture_confidence": 82.627, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.35, "rotation_up": 66.84, "upward_expansion": 82.54, "deceleration": 51.06, "rotation_down": 17.25, "downward_expansion": 20.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 1773.466667, 1704.145455, 1673.596348, 1652.901681 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1918.0, "trend_reference": 1635.291516, "distance_from_trend": 0.17288, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2201.212845, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.128662, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.606529, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.142033, "excess_performance": 0.090798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.17288, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013808, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.128662, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.218387, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.086065, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.251063, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142033, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.612243, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2989443, "relative_activity": 1.781093, "balance": 2.612243, "dry_up": 1.862906, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066785, "annualized_volatility": 0.403229, "from_high_reference": -0.062561, "from_low_reference": 0.363426 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1635.291516, "fair_value_reference": 2201.212845, "structural_low": 1446.166016, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.051724, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.038601, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065529, "worst_return": 0.037918, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.122898, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.051917, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.21903, "worst_return": 0.026766, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.144683, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.073049, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.231789, "worst_return": 0.057576, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"mixed", "direction": -9.336009, "energy": 15.527255, "activity_lines": [ 1591.466667, 1626.490909, 1623.390504, 1619.830805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1582.0, "volume": 1973453, "typical_volume": 1479851.55, "trend": 1619.089384, "fair_value": 2209.547224, "relative_strength": -9.10474, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.391058, "energy": 22.340042, "activity_lines": [ 1586.266667, 1613.490909, 1620.069605, 1617.2219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1880.0, "volume": 6579687, "typical_volume": 1696656.9, "trend": 1625.874003, "fair_value": 2205.386298, "relative_strength": 6.737717, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.492202, "energy": 36.947836, "activity_lines": [ 1681.266667, 1656.763636, 1645.574713, 1634.054843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1918.0, "volume": 2989443, "typical_volume": 1678431.5, "trend": 1635.291516, "fair_value": 2201.212845, "relative_strength": 8.606529, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.748603, "energy": 68.168081, "activity_lines": [ 1773.466667, 1704.145455, 1673.596348, 1652.901681 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }