{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a829c2bd-8c73-4ff3-96bd-abb8dfc37106", "symbol": "M-CHAI", "name": "Mahachai Hospital Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.585, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.144, "architecture_energy": 9.366, "architecture_maturity": 16.327, "architecture_confidence": 61.06, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.03, "rotation_up": 18.93, "upward_expansion": 23.89, "deceleration": 63.9, "rotation_down": 35.01, "downward_expansion": 48.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.013334, 18.998182, 18.96, 19.067741 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.0, "trend_reference": 19.476039, "distance_from_trend": -0.024442, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.586162, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.434291, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.166939, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.105695, "excess_performance": -0.29802, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024442, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029822, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.434291, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053618, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181669, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027541, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105695, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.930937, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19000, "relative_activity": 0.346969, "balance": 4.930937, "dry_up": 0.479364, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05587, "annualized_volatility": 0.288363, "from_high_reference": -0.223743, "from_low_reference": 0.066287 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.476039, "fair_value_reference": 33.586162, "structural_low": 17.818849, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.009438, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.024859, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.203125, "worst_return": -0.015848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042965, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.002575, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.692308, "worst_return": -0.055656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.064278, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.011025, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.724324, "worst_return": -0.253597, "sufficient": false 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19.254599 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.700001, "volume": 507800, "typical_volume": 69795.0, "trend": 19.775515, "fair_value": 35.018557, "relative_strength": -17.149904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.029376, "energy": 6.808113, "activity_lines": [ 19.080001, 18.97091, 18.929641, 19.248088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.200001, "volume": 28600, "typical_volume": 67660.0, "trend": 19.726911, "fair_value": 34.645633, "relative_strength": -19.724496, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.115449, "energy": 11.685182, "activity_lines": [ 19.166667, 19.01091, 18.948562, 19.210958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.700001, "volume": 46400, "typical_volume": 58760.0, "trend": 19.635532, "fair_value": 34.292831, "relative_strength": -21.574709, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.105829, "energy": 12.088821, "activity_lines": [ 19.053334, 18.961819, 18.933334, 19.144706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.0, "volume": 11000, "typical_volume": 54850.0, "trend": 19.557417, "fair_value": 33.941952, "relative_strength": -19.076125, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.437038, "energy": 10.23427, "activity_lines": [ 19.033334, 18.985455, 18.947143, 19.103703 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.0, "volume": 19000, "typical_volume": 54760.0, "trend": 19.476039, "fair_value": 33.586162, "relative_strength": -18.166939, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.144306, "energy": 9.36552, "activity_lines": [ 19.013334, 18.998182, 18.96, 19.067741 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }