{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8371a7d-4290-4af0-88bd-d286bb6b167b", "symbol": "TFII", "name": "TFI International Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.424, "architecture_energy": 19.54, "architecture_maturity": 57.076, "architecture_confidence": 93.852, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.81, "rotation_up": 29.41, "upward_expansion": 56.66, "deceleration": 87.92, "rotation_down": 28.89, "downward_expansion": 20.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 143.531333, 145.182436, 145.123561, 138.954521 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 140.46, "trend_reference": 130.790804, "distance_from_trend": 0.073929, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 119.175301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.1786, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.669535, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.157431, "excess_performance": 0.031806, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073929, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149125, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.1786, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016372, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.096695, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140341, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.157431, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.631556, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1400517, "relative_activity": 0.765737, "balance": 1.631556, "dry_up": 1.016793, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080738, "annualized_volatility": 0.388958, "from_high_reference": -0.159641, "from_low_reference": 0.757634 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 130.790804, "fair_value_reference": 119.175301, "structural_low": 96.950533, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.068987, "positive_rate": 0.764706, "directional_follow_through": 0.764706, "median_excess_return": 0.028108, "regime_survival": 0.352941, "best_return": 0.333395, "worst_return": -0.162604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.094891, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.049258, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.4683, "worst_return": -0.041784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.158538, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.035633, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.248595, "worst_return": -0.012631, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 118.599819, "relative_strength": 21.13122, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.56891, "energy": 25.943199, "activity_lines": [ 145.096909, 147.753808, 141.363703, 134.424332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 155.83, "volume": 1720025, "typical_volume": 1856127.85, "trend": 127.324003, "fair_value": 118.850191, "relative_strength": 28.790619, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.673707, "energy": 36.417054, "activity_lines": [ 148.002188, 149.266357, 143.560251, 136.375754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 150.43, "volume": 931094, "typical_volume": 1802647.95, "trend": 128.825909, "fair_value": 119.030661, "relative_strength": 24.222985, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.880567, "energy": 35.20927, "activity_lines": [ 149.377242, 149.485197, 145.068104, 137.866464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 135.02, "volume": 3387131, "typical_volume": 1865216.55, "trend": 129.789214, "fair_value": 119.089418, "relative_strength": 9.719857, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.928052, "energy": 23.811036, "activity_lines": [ 145.248667, 146.725118, 144.916356, 138.266083 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 140.46, "volume": 1400517, "typical_volume": 1828977.95, "trend": 130.790804, "fair_value": 119.175301, "relative_strength": 9.669535, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.424178, "energy": 19.539613, "activity_lines": [ 143.531333, 145.182436, 145.123561, 138.954521 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }