{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a84daa17-b867-42d9-979e-c4a025215e60", "symbol": "XBAK", "name": "Xtrackers - MSCI Pakistan Swap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 91.818, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.499, "architecture_energy": 23.185, "architecture_maturity": 17.88, "architecture_confidence": 76.735, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.38, "rotation_up": 32.34, "upward_expansion": 58.64, "deceleration": 81.84, "rotation_down": 31.66, "downward_expansion": 19.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.7796, 1.792045, 1.773826, 1.752063 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.8255, "trend_reference": 1.751783, "distance_from_trend": 0.042081, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.270917, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.436365, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.016297, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.027437, "excess_performance": -0.078673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042081, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003983, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.436365, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054182, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030163, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035273, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027437, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.739136, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76073, "relative_activity": 0.630401, "balance": 0.739136, "dry_up": 0.325981, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045235, "annualized_volatility": 0.301823, "from_high_reference": -0.084962, "from_low_reference": 0.248632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.751783, "fair_value_reference": 1.270917, "structural_low": 1.462, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00144, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000686, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.13308, "worst_return": -0.080808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.137931, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.109721, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.311787, "worst_return": -0.164384, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.191486, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.228273, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.405999, "worst_return": -0.262626, "sufficient": false 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0.029525, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04338, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.202788, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.119785, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02234, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.135698, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022179, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007819, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089682, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071699, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038396, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.62, "volume": 131972, "typical_volume": 156117.6, "trend": 0.58905, "fair_value": 0.889433, "relative_strength": 0.945656, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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33.319883, "energy": 49.922721, "activity_lines": [ 1.833367, 1.800536, 1.755664, 1.749628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.7745, "volume": 60152, "typical_volume": 132495.0, "trend": 1.760533, "fair_value": 1.249228, "relative_strength": -3.140742, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.412497, "energy": 36.805828, "activity_lines": [ 1.8172, 1.800373, 1.761433, 1.750457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.7155, "volume": 7846, "typical_volume": 122467.3, "trend": 1.758383, "fair_value": 1.256189, "relative_strength": -7.539748, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.002925, "energy": 8.871508, "activity_lines": [ 1.780333, 1.789, 1.761298, 1.747552 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.758, "volume": 13279, "typical_volume": 118669.6, "trend": 1.755183, "fair_value": 1.263321, "relative_strength": -6.352424, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.452641, "energy": 8.482965, "activity_lines": [ 1.766767, 1.784836, 1.764879, 1.747527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.8255, "volume": 76073, "typical_volume": 120674.05, "trend": 1.751783, "fair_value": 1.270917, "relative_strength": -3.016297, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.499095, "energy": 23.185395, "activity_lines": [ 1.7796, 1.792045, 1.773826, 1.752063 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }