{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8541550-a622-40a1-a85a-c3ac4290e157", "symbol": "TMV", "name": "TeamViewer SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.122, "architecture_energy": 82.257, "architecture_maturity": 21.967, "architecture_confidence": 61.388, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.89, "rotation_up": 80.78, "upward_expansion": 93.32, "deceleration": 41.89, "rotation_down": 8.87, "downward_expansion": 17.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.016, 5.707345, 5.535781, 5.356703 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.425, "trend_reference": 5.246667, "distance_from_trend": 0.224587, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.304436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.376482, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.693555, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.128183, "excess_performance": -0.046064, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.224587, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013129, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.376482, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128296, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156936, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.20989, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.128183, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.013761, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3742, "relative_activity": 0.768536, "balance": 11.013761, "dry_up": 2.999435, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071392, "annualized_volatility": 0.504824, "from_high_reference": -0.382212, "from_low_reference": 0.551183 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.246667, "fair_value_reference": 10.304436, "structural_low": 4.142, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.007304, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.021095, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.168118, "worst_return": -0.085733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.033948, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.07183, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.304003, "worst_return": -0.101181, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.061781, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.247652, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22769, "worst_return": -0.154802, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.165466, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.38439, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.170559, "worst_return": -0.501491, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.073591, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080962, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133419, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011504, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09883, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031927, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.225133, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075524, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.191759, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056152, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.404035, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186486, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089509, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061107, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.504999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 48.0, "trend": 15.051667, "fair_value": 21.879526, "relative_strength": 26.578017, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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16.622975, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.561891, "energy": 48.95803, "activity_lines": [ 16.576, 16.379091, 15.698572, 15.535796 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 16.125, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 37.7, "trend": 15.4035, "fair_value": 21.18975, "relative_strength": 17.123334, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.853869, "energy": 36.792805, "activity_lines": [ 16.378, 16.412, 15.765714, 15.583925 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 15.835, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 37.7, "trend": 15.417167, "fair_value": 21.026577, "relative_strength": 14.834387, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.141022, "energy": 23.257676, "activity_lines": [ 16.147667, 16.348818, 15.80781, 15.611764 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 15.995, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 37.7, "trend": 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10.624115, "relative_strength": -37.040065, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.972822, "energy": 17.18843, "activity_lines": [ 5.135933, 5.336636, 5.165033, 5.153725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.455, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3299.95, "trend": 5.237333, "fair_value": 10.564179, "relative_strength": -31.710106, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.835361, "energy": 14.689877, "activity_lines": [ 5.196533, 5.351691, 5.208938, 5.167348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.73, "volume": 13550, "typical_volume": 3838.15, "trend": 5.2365, "fair_value": 10.504372, "relative_strength": -25.43015, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.118961, "energy": 13.039505, "activity_lines": [ 5.3818, 5.404218, 5.275676, 5.199133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.66, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 3169.55, "trend": 5.228667, "fair_value": 10.441327, "relative_strength": -25.997186, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.750155, "energy": 38.166075, "activity_lines": [ 5.5194, 5.439655, 5.330624, 5.226456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.055, "volume": 39025, "typical_volume": 5055.3, "trend": 5.2325, "fair_value": 10.372801, "relative_strength": -19.480608, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.33547, "energy": 66.165824, "activity_lines": [ 5.747333, 5.542545, 5.418933, 5.279768 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.425, "volume": 3742, "typical_volume": 4869.0, "trend": 5.246667, "fair_value": 10.304436, "relative_strength": -15.693555, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.121659, "energy": 82.257019, "activity_lines": [ 6.016, 5.707345, 5.535781, 5.356703 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }