{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a85b504c-31b8-420f-a495-bcb2c0790742", "symbol": "002921", "name": "Shandong Liancheng Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.103, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.871, "architecture_energy": 54.31, "architecture_maturity": 8.412, "architecture_confidence": 52.125, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.08, "rotation_up": 22.17, "upward_expansion": 24.74, "deceleration": 37.8, "rotation_down": 62.26, "downward_expansion": 57.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.145334, 23.604728, 25.170619, 25.405032 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.08, "trend_reference": 25.091, "distance_from_trend": -0.080148, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.59699, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.479773, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.635679, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.01674, "excess_performance": 0.00934, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080148, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126959, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.479773, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.702801, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.066357, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.36646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01674, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.574353, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43523454, "relative_activity": 1.486533, "balance": 0.574353, "dry_up": 1.438832, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154646, "annualized_volatility": 0.654236, "from_high_reference": -0.306073, "from_low_reference": 0.684672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.091, "fair_value_reference": 15.59699, "structural_low": 18.950001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.048823, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.025957, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.122995, "worst_return": -0.122066, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.004527, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.137003, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.021796, "worst_return": -0.012741, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.082671, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.068628, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.018241, "worst_return": -0.1471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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24.533333, "fair_value": 15.486964, "relative_strength": 13.402581, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.021646, "energy": 8.496232, "activity_lines": [ 25.984667, 25.867273, 26.596381, 26.076925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.440001, "volume": 36813855, "typical_volume": 27397656.6, "trend": 24.692, "fair_value": 15.507999, "relative_strength": -6.246029, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.172111, "energy": 25.521973, "activity_lines": [ 23.811334, 24.606182, 25.919857, 25.748323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.18, "volume": 48501472, "typical_volume": 28361870.35, "trend": 24.889, "fair_value": 15.543614, "relative_strength": 3.399242, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.609701, "energy": 53.255647, "activity_lines": [ 22.512667, 23.871819, 25.445143, 25.521742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.08, "volume": 43523454, "typical_volume": 29278493.35, "trend": 25.091, "fair_value": 15.59699, "relative_strength": 6.635679, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.8713, "energy": 54.309997, "activity_lines": [ 22.145334, 23.604728, 25.170619, 25.405032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }