{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a86196db-8b28-4e7f-aae3-cce77f88a6f3", "symbol": "MORN", "name": "Morningstar Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 44.981, "architecture_energy": 39.753, "architecture_maturity": 14.633, "architecture_confidence": 67.588, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.87, "rotation_up": 64.81, "upward_expansion": 47.79, "deceleration": 36.85, "rotation_down": 16.53, "downward_expansion": 10.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 186.77, 177.403812, 175.202004, 175.015048 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 200.66, "trend_reference": 177.119012, "distance_from_trend": 0.132911, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 260.89619, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.230882, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.206932, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.216174, "excess_performance": 0.02872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.132911, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070442, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.230882, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098105, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122069, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.242208, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.216174, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.235185, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1387052, "relative_activity": 0.589341, "balance": 2.235185, "dry_up": 0.85435, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086003, "annualized_volatility": 0.471408, "from_high_reference": -0.240284, "from_low_reference": 0.422485 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 177.119012, "fair_value_reference": 260.89619, "structural_low": 141.063002, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.024106, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.02873, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.129696, "worst_return": -0.152932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.01532, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.008201, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.260371, "worst_return": -0.175254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002607, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.083537, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.116649, "worst_return": -0.298982, 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"fair_value": 261.145998, "relative_strength": -22.007865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.918194, "energy": 14.228721, "activity_lines": [ 168.904781, 168.130152, 170.555306, 172.603335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 192.57, "volume": 3284245, "typical_volume": 2396719.6, "trend": 177.63684, "fair_value": 260.993686, "relative_strength": -12.369661, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.140961, "energy": 16.483045, "activity_lines": [ 177.768614, 172.149073, 172.51696, 173.529682 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 200.66, "volume": 1387052, "typical_volume": 2353566.2, "trend": 177.119012, "fair_value": 260.89619, "relative_strength": -12.206932, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.980615, "energy": 39.753206, "activity_lines": [ 186.77, 177.403812, 175.202004, 175.015048 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }