{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8632e28-71ce-4061-8163-7542bdfe4f5a", "symbol": "HMI", "name": "Harvest Minerals Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.725, "architecture_energy": 33.175, "architecture_maturity": 26.299, "architecture_confidence": 88.856, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.49, "rotation_up": 19.03, "upward_expansion": 3.43, "deceleration": 49.42, "rotation_down": 54.04, "downward_expansion": 79.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0023, 0.002391, 0.002674, 0.002856 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.00225, "trend_reference": 0.002992, "distance_from_trend": -0.247911, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.007403, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.696062, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.253454, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.307692, "excess_performance": -0.358928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.247911, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0271, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.696062, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023775, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.292535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.354607, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.307692, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.077443, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3289633, "relative_activity": 0.2414, "balance": 4.077443, "dry_up": 2.235548, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.393846, "annualized_volatility": 0.788558, "from_high_reference": -0.55, "from_low_reference": 0.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.002992, "fair_value_reference": 0.007403, "structural_low": 0.002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.056962, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.080474, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.583333, "worst_return": -0.487603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.167119, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.193832, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.636364, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.241429, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.304594, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.173913, "worst_return": -0.823077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046512, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113636, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.342105, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.36, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.266667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.371508, 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"fair_value": 0.007791, "relative_strength": -21.324434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.917796, "energy": 48.719059, "activity_lines": [ 0.002367, 0.002532, 0.002823, 0.002952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00225, "volume": 12788900, "typical_volume": 15358178.55, "trend": 0.002992, "fair_value": 0.007597, "relative_strength": -29.611297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.83948, "energy": 41.443043, "activity_lines": [ 0.002317, 0.002455, 0.002745, 0.002904 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00225, "volume": 3289633, "typical_volume": 13627290.35, "trend": 0.002992, "fair_value": 0.007403, "relative_strength": -29.253454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.725135, "energy": 33.17516, "activity_lines": [ 0.0023, 0.002391, 0.002674, 0.002856 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }