{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a864af58-83e8-4092-b9df-21200e475b18", "symbol": "VLID3", "name": "Valid Solu\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.082, "architecture_energy": 33.018, "architecture_maturity": 68.546, "architecture_confidence": 75.672, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.19, "rotation_up": 25.95, "upward_expansion": 19.6, "deceleration": 45.75, "rotation_down": 34.79, "downward_expansion": 55.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.660667, 17.650728, 17.862715, 18.426277 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.030001, "trend_reference": 19.297163, "distance_from_trend": -0.117487, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.466819, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077805, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.793351, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.21061, "excess_performance": -0.153562, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117487, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052946, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077805, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112614, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167934, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085426, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.21061, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544611, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1373400, "relative_activity": 1.040991, "balance": 0.544611, "dry_up": 0.803141, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053994, "annualized_volatility": 0.203166, "from_high_reference": -0.262085, "from_low_reference": 0.030872 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.297163, "fair_value_reference": 18.466819, "structural_low": 16.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.018711, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.000848, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.356617, "worst_return": -0.083721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.072754, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.082642, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.204475, "worst_return": -0.013954, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.445544, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.419052, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.800416, "worst_return": 0.131708, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.779788, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.709945, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.571738, "worst_return": 0.238789, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058486, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.062922, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117389, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064283, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.041409, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039065, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001898, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067756, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"down", "direction": -48.595107, "energy": 40.854995, "activity_lines": [ 17.635333, 17.569887, 18.21929, 18.905043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.780001, "volume": 1256100, "typical_volume": 1377005.0, "trend": 19.61029, "fair_value": 18.366831, "relative_strength": -15.833305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.10108, "energy": 33.431644, "activity_lines": [ 17.722667, 17.599273, 18.115406, 18.780334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.74, "volume": 918400, "typical_volume": 1349940.0, "trend": 19.501314, "fair_value": 18.406487, "relative_strength": -15.493831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.284626, "energy": 27.89077, "activity_lines": [ 17.766, 17.635636, 18.025919, 18.65967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.27, "volume": 690500, "typical_volume": 1331135.0, "trend": 19.416275, "fair_value": 18.440825, "relative_strength": -14.199748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.877481, "energy": 20.687061, "activity_lines": [ 17.95, 17.764727, 17.999837, 18.58023 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.030001, "volume": 1373400, "typical_volume": 1319320.0, "trend": 19.297163, "fair_value": 18.466819, "relative_strength": -16.793351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.082136, "energy": 33.01764, "activity_lines": [ 17.660667, 17.650728, 17.862715, 18.426277 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }