{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8681834-39b5-42bf-baf3-c93126dd0314", "symbol": "600035", "name": "Hubei Chutian Smart Communication Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.75, "architecture_energy": 47.254, "architecture_maturity": 85.729, "architecture_confidence": 76.547, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.15, "rotation_up": 27.34, "upward_expansion": 11.71, "deceleration": 60.91, "rotation_down": 46.18, "downward_expansion": 73.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.482667, 3.489317, 3.554386, 3.632351 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.44, "trend_reference": 3.73574, "distance_from_trend": -0.079165, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.95327, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.129834, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.798141, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.135678, "excess_performance": -0.092475, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079165, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04231, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.129834, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067053, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107981, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062555, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.135678, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.84444, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88138025, "relative_activity": 2.026019, "balance": 0.84444, "dry_up": 1.768396, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032929, "annualized_volatility": 0.150043, "from_high_reference": -0.212815, "from_low_reference": 0.011765 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.73574, "fair_value_reference": 3.95327, "structural_low": 3.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.008932, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.004058, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.03038, "worst_return": -0.057562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017881, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.031154, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.139024, "worst_return": -0.086614, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.012766, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043272, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.060976, "worst_return": -0.035443, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087167, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021739, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083512, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-05", 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"typical_volume": 42420886.65, "trend": 3.763074, "fair_value": 3.956716, "relative_strength": -8.991048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.000657, "energy": 59.719742, "activity_lines": [ 3.478667, 3.510742, 3.587026, 3.667414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.53, "volume": 72944725, "typical_volume": 42424810.55, "trend": 3.750407, "fair_value": 3.955341, "relative_strength": -6.49998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.702121, "energy": 46.89283, "activity_lines": [ 3.5, 3.50711, 3.573825, 3.652377 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.44, "volume": 88138025, "typical_volume": 43503059.25, "trend": 3.73574, "fair_value": 3.95327, "relative_strength": -10.798141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.750384, "energy": 47.253697, "activity_lines": [ 3.482667, 3.489317, 3.554386, 3.632351 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }