{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8686b43-d0fb-41d5-b78c-702c5a7d956f", "symbol": "SRSA", "name": "iShares MSCI South Africa UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.52, "architecture_energy": 11.171, "architecture_maturity": 29.607, "architecture_confidence": 69.155, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.39, "rotation_up": 25.25, "upward_expansion": 15.09, "deceleration": 38.59, "rotation_down": 33.51, "downward_expansion": 65.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.891, 50.581272, 50.940976, 51.477903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 54.310001, "trend_reference": 52.513, "distance_from_trend": 0.03422, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.864776, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.434315, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.612302, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.019144, "excess_performance": -0.190036, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03422, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006819, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.434315, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048393, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066123, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073823, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019144, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.428957, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12955, "relative_activity": 0.730411, "balance": 0.428957, "dry_up": 1.307889, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039892, "annualized_volatility": 0.343691, "from_high_reference": -0.10938, "from_low_reference": 0.358769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.513, "fair_value_reference": 37.864776, "structural_low": 45.779999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.008914, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018913, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.13033, "worst_return": -0.096414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.100436, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.019764, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.194512, "worst_return": -0.067688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.050514, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.043871, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.351579, "worst_return": 0.004613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.57543, "energy": 39.339027, "activity_lines": [ 50.587999, 50.760545, 51.326405, 52.05971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.110001, "volume": 6073, "typical_volume": 17106.8, "trend": 52.667833, "fair_value": 37.443205, "relative_strength": -12.523364, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.078889, "energy": 50.135383, "activity_lines": [ 50.08, 50.403273, 51.054714, 51.826516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.724998, "volume": 65339, "typical_volume": 19345.65, "trend": 52.564, "fair_value": 37.559872, "relative_strength": -13.072908, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.121267, "energy": 55.180363, "activity_lines": [ 49.556999, 50.052363, 50.802309, 51.57214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.279999, "volume": 8423, "typical_volume": 17944.55, "trend": 52.486667, "fair_value": 37.695417, "relative_strength": -12.689029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.121568, "energy": 56.68158, "activity_lines": [ 49.360666, 49.843908, 50.626785, 51.360269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.310001, "volume": 12955, "typical_volume": 17736.6, "trend": 52.513, "fair_value": 37.864776, "relative_strength": -6.612302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.520193, "energy": 11.17113, "activity_lines": [ 50.891, 50.581272, 50.940976, 51.477903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }