{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a869efc9-a7f9-4ace-95be-c54c9b832e9e", "symbol": "603687", "name": "Zhejiang Great Shengda Packaging Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.06, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.774, "architecture_energy": 52.444, "architecture_maturity": 2.907, "architecture_confidence": 63.78, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.2, "rotation_up": 16.78, "upward_expansion": 27.23, "deceleration": 48.54, "rotation_down": 68.51, "downward_expansion": 52.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.37, 14.935485, 15.908957, 15.546223 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.45, "trend_reference": 14.615743, "distance_from_trend": -0.01134, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.625964, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.501148, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.970964, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.256522, "excess_performance": 0.299726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01134, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191644, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.501148, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.380555, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.19971, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.367099, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.256522, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.778221, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 96404374, "relative_activity": 0.42973, "balance": 0.778221, "dry_up": 0.550341, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161545, "annualized_volatility": 0.806671, "from_high_reference": -0.305288, "from_low_reference": 0.936997 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.615743, "fair_value_reference": 9.625964, "structural_low": 9.76, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003208, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012686, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.160542, "worst_return": -0.085202, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.023248, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.015719, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125427, "worst_return": -0.210832, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.025703, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.076984, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121094, "worst_return": -0.446944, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063063, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053901, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017046, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09105, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.16623, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037611, 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124821729, "typical_volume": 221944471.15, "trend": 14.35841, "fair_value": 9.568016, "relative_strength": 7.658983, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": -15.120164, "energy": 30.049374, "activity_lines": [ 14.403333, 16.021299, 16.426551, 15.666233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.5, "volume": 107927685, "typical_volume": 223384950.4, "trend": 14.451743, "fair_value": 9.591561, "relative_strength": 7.744274, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.33709, "energy": 44.207058, "activity_lines": [ 13.351333, 15.267532, 16.081063, 15.546336 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.45, "volume": 96404374, "typical_volume": 224336981.9, "trend": 14.615743, "fair_value": 9.625964, "relative_strength": 19.970964, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.773922, "energy": 52.443549, "activity_lines": [ 13.37, 14.935485, 15.908957, 15.546223 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }